Market Updates

Simi Valley Home Sales Report for December 2010

January 6, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley home sales for the month of December 2000 and finished off strong and in similar fashion as we saw in December of 2009. The higher volume and sales is not an indicator of market recovery for the following reasons. We’ve seen an increase of homes for sale under $300,000. The distressed market consisting of short sales and foreclosures pushes sales volumes up at year-end as banks try to clear their books.

With record low interest rates continuing many have hoped for turnaround in the market however pressures from inflation on goods and services are still influencing home purchasers decisions. Looking at the tables below, the same trends have continued has over the last 18 months. Homes under 500,000 continued to dominate the market well homes over $900,000 in Simi Valley still show sluggish sales.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: December, Foreclosures, Home Sales, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report for November 2010

December 15, 2010 By Ted Mackel 3 Comments

Simi Valley home sales trends for November 2010 continued to match patterns we’ve seen over the last year. Volumes, pricing and most other factors remain unchanged month over month. While this stability is a good sign for the Simi Valley real estate market, most are still uneasy about future outlook of home sales.

Interest rates below 5% coupled with rates hitting their lowest point in November have not created any new stimulus for the Simi Valley real estate market. Looking at the Sales Volume chart below, you can see that over the past five years November has had a very common pattern except for 2007.

The bulk of the activity in Simi Valley home sales still remains in the under 500,000 price range while homes above this price point fluctuate, the luxury markets are still selling at a very slow pace. Distressed properties including short sales and foreclosures are still negatively impacting the market and will continue throughout 2011.

Current market conditions are still favorable for qualified Simi Valley home buyers as low interest rates and average home pricing afford good opportunity. Looking at the Average Sale Price Graph below shows that average pricing seems to be holding steady without any major swings. Much if this is related to the low interest rates and the rental payment comparison. Renters looking to buy over the last few years are looking to keep monthly mortgage payments near what they would pay for rent and have been unwilling to enter the market without out a bid up mentality just because rates are the lowest we have seen in a long time.

Purchases made in this market are a long term position. Until the employment picture both on the State, Local and national levels recover overall home pricing and the Simi Valley real estate market will react on a similar pace as we have seen over the last couple years.

Filed Under: Buyers, Market Updates, Sellers Tagged With: Home Buyers, Home Sellers, market. homes, real estate, Simi Valley, sold

Simi Valley Home Sales Report for September 2010

October 3, 2010 By Ted Mackel 3 Comments

Simi Valley home sales for September 2010 held their ground and blended in with the running averages. Interest rates remained below 5% in September and some buyers were able to lock rates below 4 1/2%. Even with historically low interest rates Simi Valley Home buyers remain cautious. While the number of distressed properties listed for sale does not dominate the inventory, there is still a significant number of homeowners in trouble which adds negative pressure to the market.

Homeowners trying to modify and keep their homes, sometimes end up more than half a year behind on payments only to find out that they do not qualify for modification. This backlog of distressed inventory is part of what’s driving lack of confidence in the market.

Simi Valley saw a low in May of 2009 and so far, the market has not retreated back to those numbers. The Simi Valley Housing Market looks to have stabilized and is holding ground for the time being. Only has the tax incentives added any excitement to the market.

Buyers tend to have a slight advantage in purchases now as inventories are more balanced, Interest Rates are incredibly low and the distressed market created some influence in favor of Simi Valley Home Buyers.

This first chart has the Simi Valley detached home sales broken down by price range for the month of September 2010.

This next chart represents the number of single family detached Simi Valley homes sold by month.

This chart show the average sales price of single family detached homes ove the last 3 years

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Buyers, home, Home Sales, report, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report For August 2010

September 17, 2010 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

The number of single-family detached homes sold in Simi Valley for the month of August 2010 retreated slightly for a second straight month. While interest rates are favorable, loan qualification is tougher and buyers are not quick to jump into a purchase with the lack of tax credits for incentives. The popular price range continued to dominate the under $500K price range. The good news in the market is that the pricing has remained fairly stable over the last year. The Simi Valley Housing market hit a low in May of 2009 and we have not seen prices attempt any return tn those lows.

The market is still very sensitive with the following factors weighing heavily on it’s ability to recover.

Employment – If people aren’t working, they aren’t going to qualify for financing. If companies are not creating jobs the economy is not growing. This creates a lack of confidence among home buyers.
Interest Rates – Low interest Rates will entice buyers to enter the market, but any up-shift in rates reduces the buyer’s price range options and will slow the market.
Short Sales – These homes available to buyers can afford some good value, however they are unpredictable and add to buyer uncertainty in the market place.
Foreclosures – These properties are perceived as bargains, but usually are burdened with maintenance issues and difficult seller terms. The banks are slow to release these properties to market and the backlog adds to buyer uncertainty in the market place.
Loan Modification – These potential sellers can spend many months trying to modify their loans before eventually trying to Short Sell their home. The long process to help these home owners adds to overall uncertainty in the housing market.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: hme sales, housing, market update, Simi Valley

Housing Prices Still Too High? Rightly Taking a Swipe at NAR

September 3, 2010 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

If you are a regular reader of this blog, you’ll know that I’m not a big fan of hyping the real estate market back into recovery. The banking industry, unemployment and the economy in general, still will have a large impact on home values over the next 3 to 5 years. It is not popular in my industry to not hype the advantages of home ownership. I am excited about the super low interest rates and the ability to get loans very close to the 4% range these days, a word of caution always needs to be included in the discussion. My word of caution is if you buy home today, plan on staying for a while before you see a significant increase in the value of that property.

Barry Ritholz, the author of The Big Picture Blog, as seen in this interview below on Yahoo Finance Tech Ticker. If it seems that Barry is taking a swipe at NAR, well maybe NAR deserves it, as I never seem to see any news come from NAR that isn’t always rosy.

Tough markets, down markets and depressed markets should not be scary or seen as a negative. It should be seen as an opportunity. Taking opportunity in these markets can be very rewarding if approached with proper research and patience.

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Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: housing prices, markets, nar

Simi Valley Home Buyers – FHA Premium Goes Up After Oct 4th

August 18, 2010 By Ted Mackel 5 Comments

Simi Valley Home Buyers, if you are out shopping for a home and are going to use FHA financing it is important to make sure you get your FHA case number before October 4th, 2010 as the FHA Premium goes up after this date. John Yang independent mortgage broker and author of the Mortgage Video Blog explains how the increases will affect your monthly mortgage payment in this video.

Other articles on Lending: Understanding the GFE Statement

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley, specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

Filed Under: Market Updates, Money matters Tagged With: fha, financing, Home Buyers, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report For July 2010

August 10, 2010 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

The number of single-family detached homes sold in Simi Valley for the month of July 2010 pulled back from a robust June market. There really is no significance in the decline for the following reasons.

The federal tax credits expired June 30, there was a rush to close escrow’s to qualify for the tax credit. If you look closely at the chart below, June 2010 pretty much didn’t do any better than June 2009. So with this huge tax incentive for home buyers, bit State and Federally, all that really happened is we held our ground in June.
Those that participated in Simi Valley home purchases to gain the tax credit, did not stimulate the market at the levels the government hoped for.

Essentially, if you look at the charts below you can see the average Simi Valley sales year-over-year and while 2009 and 2010 look better, this is more stabilization than any type of recovery.

There are still significant numbers of homeowners struggling to modify their loans or participate in a short sale to get out from under their loan. This number is large and will take several years to deplete out of our inventories before we can look forward to any type recovery.

This first Chart is useful to see how many single family detached homes sell each month in Simi Valley. There really has been no significant change from 2008 and this includes the tax credits.

Th following Chart breaks out the Simi Valley home Sales that occurred in July 2010 by price range. The trend continues with the most activity in the $300k to $400k range.

The chart below is a graphic display of the data in the table just above.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Home Sales, Market Updates, Simi Valley

Altos Research CEO Michael Simonsen on the Fox Business Network discussing the future of the US housing market

July 26, 2010 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Altos Research CEO Michael Simonsen on the Fox Business Network discussing the future of the US housing market

I met Mike a couple years ago at Real Estate Bar Camp. Mike’s Company provides very robust Real Estate statistical data. Altos Research. Great to see him on Fox News. Congratulations Mike!

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Altos Research, housing market

Simi Valley Wood Ranch Home Sales 2006 – July 2010

July 23, 2010 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

The tables below breakdown the sales for single-family detached homes in Simi Valley’s notable Wood Ranch community.I’ve purposely not mixed the Wood Ranch condo-town home market with this data as the diversity and size, types of complex and amenities are a very broad range for attached homes - skewing the averages.

The same pattern is seen in the Wood Ranch community as in others I have looked at in Simi Valley. In May of 2009 the market hit a low, which may prove to be our market bottom. As encouraging as that news is, it doesn’t mean that our struggling real estate market is in a full recovery.

A recent article from DSNews.com discusses how distressed properties will impact the market into 2012.

loss mitigation efforts like the Treasury’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) that are preventing another debilitating flood of foreclosures from hitting the market. Although HAMP and its private sector counterparts are likely simply delaying the inevitable and “prolonging the pain,” as Barclays analysts put it, such programs support a better outcome for the industry than one big market-shattering shock, they say. Barclays Lowers REO Invetory Estimate

The number of homes with financing issues that will influence the market is still very large and will take a number of years to get through. A quick glance at the public record reveals that Simi Valley’s Wood Ranch community has approximately 54 properties that are in the process of foreclosure. Less than half that number has an auction date set for the property. Looking at Long Canyon as an example on one tract in Wood Ranch shows 9 properties in pre-foreclosure and 4 additional properties set with auction dates.

While the banks are much more cooperative with short sales and loan modifications compared to the last two years, these troubled homes and the ones that will be added to the list this year and next remain a negative influence on Simi Valley Wood Ranch home values.

Sales broken down by year with highs, lows averages and days on Market.

Wood Ranch Simi Valley 2006 Sales Data
AVERAGE Sale Price	$900,838
HIGH Sale Price	$3,350,000
LOW Sale Price	$500,000
List to Sale Ratio	83.2%
Average Days on Market (DOM)	48
Number of Homes Sold	121

Wood Ranch Simi Valley 2007 Sales Data
AVERAGE Sale Price	$868,729
HIGH Sale Price	$1,480,000
LOW Sale Price	$525,000
List to Sale Ratio	94.89%
Average Days on Market (DOM)	78
Number of Homes Sold	116

Wood Ranch Simi Valley 2008 Sales Data
AVERAGE Sale Price	$712,166
HIGH Sale Price	$1,500,000
LOW Sale Price	$380,000
List to Sale Ratio	90.80%
Average Days on Market (DOM)	117
Number of Homes Sold	97

Wood Ranch Simi Valley 2009 Sales Data
AVERAGE Sale Price	$671,768
HIGH Sale Price	$1,287,000
LOW Sale Price	$381,500
List to Sale Ratio	92.9%
Average Days on Market (DOM)	82
Number of Homes Sold	92

Wood Ranch Simi Valley 2010 Sales Data Through July 23rd
AVERAGE Sale Price	$693,982
HIGH Sale Price	1,300,000
LOW Sale Price	425,000
List to Sale Ratio	95.6%
Average Days on Market (DOM)	73
Number of Homes Sold	52

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: HAMP, Home Sales, home values, pre-foreclosure, REO, Simi Valley, Wood Ranch

June 2010 Home Sales Report for Simi Valley Detached Homes

July 12, 2010 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

Looking at the numbers for June 2010, Simi Valley home sales look promising. Once you look past the surface of the reported numbers, some concerns become apparent. The federal tax credit set up to entice first-time home buyers with $8000 and move up buyers with $6500, was conditioned that those buyers needed to have a home under contract by April 30th and close the escrow and no later than June 30, 2010.

These tax deadlines usually are trigger points to stimulate the market. However, if you look at the Simi Valley Home Sales charts that are posted below you can see that the sales volume over the course of the last four years has really not changed much. In fact an increase of only six additional Simi Valley homes sold between June 2009 and June 2010,which shows that the tax incentive really was no incentive at all for Simi Valley Home Buyers. My industry and the newspapers rushed to claim victory that the market is now recovering, but the sobering truth is that 2010 will most likely be named the year of the Short Sale.

So what does this mean if you are a potential home seller in Simi Valley or potential home buyer in Simi Valley?

For home sellers, you fit in one of several categories.

A change in employment, whether this means a move/relocation, layoff or decrease in salary, this could force you in the position to have to sell your home.
A move-up. Things are going okay in your life and you would like to buy a larger home. If this is the case, even though the sale of your home may not fetch the price you believe you deserve, the bigger homes you are looking at purchasing have probably suffered similar or larger decreases in value and will help you to move up.
A move sideways. You’ve really like to have a pool but don’t want to go to the expense of having one installed in the home you already own. If this is the case, the cost to build your own pool could be much more than finding a similar home that already has a pool in it.
Sellers that plan to be in Simi Valley for a long time and don’t have circumstances that really need to prompt a move at this time. Sit tight and enjoy your life, what happens over the course of next couple years will be more important those who have to sell at this time.

For home buyers here are a few concerns to consider.

Making offers on short sale properties. The key to successful short sale purchase involves a few factors. First, as a buyer understanding that the value of the property is critically tied to what the sellers Lender’s a appraisal values come in at. Ultimately in a short sale, the seller’s Lender will approve or disapprove the sale of the home, based on how much money they will receive if they agree to take less than what is owed. The seller’s Lender will rely heavily on the current market value of the house supported by several appraisals and (BPOs) broker price opinions. Finding deep discounts on these properties are very, very difficult. Anyone who gives you the Cal Worthington and his dog Spot routine should be avoided. Second, the listing agent handling the short sale may not have the skill set to handle this complex transaction. Properties are listed far below market value, and/or have a listing agent does not equipped to deal with the complexities of the requests by the seller’s Lender, will only tie you up in a long-drawn-out escrow with little chance of success.
Making offers on bank owned properties. Most of the banks who’ve taken the time to foreclose and then list their properties on the open market through the multiple listing service are looking to get current market value on these properties. Much like short sale lenders they have had several appraisals and several broker price opinions done on these properties they have a very good understanding as to the surrounding values compared to their property.

The bottom line is that interest rates are very favorable for those looking to purchase. and affordability is at it’s highest levels in 40 years. Appraisal value is tied very strongly to the final sales value of most homes and finally we still have a long way to go until the large volume of distressed properties are cycled through the market and lessen the impact on those home sellers who have equity in their homes.

The next time you see a lot of hype and cheer-leading over the Southern California real estate market, make sure to check in here at HomeBuysBlog.com, scroll down the right-hand column and look for the categories and under market updates you’ll be able to look at the charts and tables to see what the average sales volume and average sales prices for Simi Valley.