Market Updates

Simi Valley May 2011 Real Estate Market Report

June 9, 2011 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

The Simi Valley May 2011 real estate market report for home sales is continuing on some similar trends. Total single-family detached homes sold in the month of May were slightly lower than the previous year with a 6 1/2% decrease, but higher than in April 2011. The average sales price for Simi Valley single-family detached homes declined for a second month in row from $443,038 to 433,502. The decline is influenced by the higher number of homes that close in the under $400,000 price range. If you look at each chart from the monthly reports posted in the Market Updates section of this blog; it is clear the highest buyer activity is in the below $400,000 price range. Continuing from earlier this year we have seen more homes selling below $300,000 and in May there were 16 single-family detached homes closing below this level which is the highest number since the height of the real estate market back in 2006-2007.

In recent reports Robert Shiller, one of the economists behind the S&P Case/Shiller index of home prices, has stated he would not be surprised if home values decline another 10% to 25%. While this seems alarming, Mr. Schiller is clear that some of this decline will not be seen in actual prices but rather masked by inflation.

May of 2009 saw homes close at lower pricing than today and each time the Simi Valley real estate market approaches price points similar to 2009, buyers and investors purchase activities pick up and appear to help support a flatter market condition.

With home sales under 300,000 increasing, first-time home buyer’s affordability increases as well. Some housing tracts in Simi Valley stabilized and some pulled back a little. Overall, the three-year trend of approximately 80 single-family detached homes selling each month continues and signals for gains and recovery in home pricing is still on hold. The chart below is broken into pricing categories, if you look at the price range your home falls into, you can see what the average market timing is, what the average sales price is compared to the original list price and how many homes in your range or closing each month.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: declines, Home Sales, real estate, recovery, Robert Shiller, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report April 2011

May 9, 2011 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

Simi Valley Single-family detached home sales for the month of April 2011 did not continue to increase in the number of properties sold as we saw in February and March. What was more interesting, was that the volume dropped a little over 10% from 2010. The month-to-month uncertainty that still clouds the market, is a big reason why I do not make claims recovery. Simi Valley is still experiencing single-family detached homes selling under $300,000, the bulk of sales activity continues to be under $500,000 and distressed properties will continue to be a big part of the Simi Valley real estate market for some time to come. Gasoline prices in April near $4.50 a gallon and general economic concerns, locally, statewide and nationally are not improving.

The importance to homeowners at this time is understanding that any market recovery is going to be slow, plans to sell property in the future should consider how the market is reacting in these difficult economic times. The winners in the current marketplace are the buyers with historically low interest rates and pricing hitting pre-bubble levels as reported in the Wall Street Journal in February.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: April, Foreclosures, Home Sales, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Homes Sales Report for March 2011

April 10, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley home sales saw the second straight month with the highest volumes since 2006. However, mimicking February, we are still seeing more listings and more sales below $300,000 and the final sales ratios averaging more than 5% below the original list price. Good thing, but home sellers and homeowners I speak with are more interested as to when it will see a recovery in pricing.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Foreclosures, Home Sales, March, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Homes Sales Report for February 2011

March 9, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley single-family detached home sales for February 2011 saw the highest volumes since 2006. While the typical response to a record month of sales was jubilation and claims of market recovery, looking closer at the numbers shows that while there was an uptick in the number of homes sold the market still has a ways to go before we can declare recovery. The continuing trend to watch is the increase of homes sold under $300,000. Most of 2010 saw a few sales under $300,000 per month, but as of December 2000 and the number is picked up. Even with record low interest rates last fall, buyers may have come out to purchase more homes, but higher volumes is not equating into higher prices.

Inflation impacting goods and services especially items like gasoline goes is taking money way that might be attributed to a buyer’s mortgage payment. Overall economic concerns of inflation and employment along with the continued impact of the short sale and bank owned property market are keeping housing prices down. Another factor to watch as the list to sell ratio. This is the difference between what a home was originally listed for and what the seller eventually accepted as an offer. The number typically is in the 3% area, however looking below the number has grown to 5% and higher on average.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: February, Foreclosures, Home Sales, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report for January 2011

February 8, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley family detached home sales report for January 2011 really doesn’t jump out compared to last couple of years; pretty much the same activity. Sales under $500,000 continue to dominate the market, with sales under $300,000 continuing to show the market moving along a base price point. The year-over-year average sales price remains in the $460,000 range and the year over year monthly average sales volume has average approximately 80 homes per month for single-family detached units.

The number to watch on the chart for this year will be the “List to Sell Ratio”. This is the price of the house ends up selling at compared to what the property was listed for. If you are a home seller in any one of these ranges you can get a good idea what you expect as a final sales price based on the current activity. The condition and upgrade of any property can negate lower list to sell ratios, but it is important to see how buyers are reacting and prepare your property accordingly prior to selling.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Foreclosures, Home Sales, January, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report for December 2010

January 6, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley home sales for the month of December 2000 and finished off strong and in similar fashion as we saw in December of 2009. The higher volume and sales is not an indicator of market recovery for the following reasons. We’ve seen an increase of homes for sale under $300,000. The distressed market consisting of short sales and foreclosures pushes sales volumes up at year-end as banks try to clear their books.

With record low interest rates continuing many have hoped for turnaround in the market however pressures from inflation on goods and services are still influencing home purchasers decisions. Looking at the tables below, the same trends have continued has over the last 18 months. Homes under 500,000 continued to dominate the market well homes over $900,000 in Simi Valley still show sluggish sales.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: December, Foreclosures, Home Sales, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report for November 2010

December 15, 2010 By Ted Mackel 3 Comments

Simi Valley home sales trends for November 2010 continued to match patterns we’ve seen over the last year. Volumes, pricing and most other factors remain unchanged month over month. While this stability is a good sign for the Simi Valley real estate market, most are still uneasy about future outlook of home sales.

Interest rates below 5% coupled with rates hitting their lowest point in November have not created any new stimulus for the Simi Valley real estate market. Looking at the Sales Volume chart below, you can see that over the past five years November has had a very common pattern except for 2007.

The bulk of the activity in Simi Valley home sales still remains in the under 500,000 price range while homes above this price point fluctuate, the luxury markets are still selling at a very slow pace. Distressed properties including short sales and foreclosures are still negatively impacting the market and will continue throughout 2011.

Current market conditions are still favorable for qualified Simi Valley home buyers as low interest rates and average home pricing afford good opportunity. Looking at the Average Sale Price Graph below shows that average pricing seems to be holding steady without any major swings. Much if this is related to the low interest rates and the rental payment comparison. Renters looking to buy over the last few years are looking to keep monthly mortgage payments near what they would pay for rent and have been unwilling to enter the market without out a bid up mentality just because rates are the lowest we have seen in a long time.

Purchases made in this market are a long term position. Until the employment picture both on the State, Local and national levels recover overall home pricing and the Simi Valley real estate market will react on a similar pace as we have seen over the last couple years.

Filed Under: Buyers, Market Updates, Sellers Tagged With: Home Buyers, Home Sellers, market. homes, real estate, Simi Valley, sold

Simi Valley Home Sales Report for September 2010

October 3, 2010 By Ted Mackel 3 Comments

Simi Valley home sales for September 2010 held their ground and blended in with the running averages. Interest rates remained below 5% in September and some buyers were able to lock rates below 4 1/2%. Even with historically low interest rates Simi Valley Home buyers remain cautious. While the number of distressed properties listed for sale does not dominate the inventory, there is still a significant number of homeowners in trouble which adds negative pressure to the market.

Homeowners trying to modify and keep their homes, sometimes end up more than half a year behind on payments only to find out that they do not qualify for modification. This backlog of distressed inventory is part of what’s driving lack of confidence in the market.

Simi Valley saw a low in May of 2009 and so far, the market has not retreated back to those numbers. The Simi Valley Housing Market looks to have stabilized and is holding ground for the time being. Only has the tax incentives added any excitement to the market.

Buyers tend to have a slight advantage in purchases now as inventories are more balanced, Interest Rates are incredibly low and the distressed market created some influence in favor of Simi Valley Home Buyers.

This first chart has the Simi Valley detached home sales broken down by price range for the month of September 2010.

This next chart represents the number of single family detached Simi Valley homes sold by month.

This chart show the average sales price of single family detached homes ove the last 3 years

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Buyers, home, Home Sales, report, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report For August 2010

September 17, 2010 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

The number of single-family detached homes sold in Simi Valley for the month of August 2010 retreated slightly for a second straight month. While interest rates are favorable, loan qualification is tougher and buyers are not quick to jump into a purchase with the lack of tax credits for incentives. The popular price range continued to dominate the under $500K price range. The good news in the market is that the pricing has remained fairly stable over the last year. The Simi Valley Housing market hit a low in May of 2009 and we have not seen prices attempt any return tn those lows.

The market is still very sensitive with the following factors weighing heavily on it’s ability to recover.

Employment – If people aren’t working, they aren’t going to qualify for financing. If companies are not creating jobs the economy is not growing. This creates a lack of confidence among home buyers.
Interest Rates – Low interest Rates will entice buyers to enter the market, but any up-shift in rates reduces the buyer’s price range options and will slow the market.
Short Sales – These homes available to buyers can afford some good value, however they are unpredictable and add to buyer uncertainty in the market place.
Foreclosures – These properties are perceived as bargains, but usually are burdened with maintenance issues and difficult seller terms. The banks are slow to release these properties to market and the backlog adds to buyer uncertainty in the market place.
Loan Modification – These potential sellers can spend many months trying to modify their loans before eventually trying to Short Sell their home. The long process to help these home owners adds to overall uncertainty in the housing market.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: hme sales, housing, market update, Simi Valley

Housing Prices Still Too High? Rightly Taking a Swipe at NAR

September 3, 2010 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

If you are a regular reader of this blog, you’ll know that I’m not a big fan of hyping the real estate market back into recovery. The banking industry, unemployment and the economy in general, still will have a large impact on home values over the next 3 to 5 years. It is not popular in my industry to not hype the advantages of home ownership. I am excited about the super low interest rates and the ability to get loans very close to the 4% range these days, a word of caution always needs to be included in the discussion. My word of caution is if you buy home today, plan on staying for a while before you see a significant increase in the value of that property.

Barry Ritholz, the author of The Big Picture Blog, as seen in this interview below on Yahoo Finance Tech Ticker. If it seems that Barry is taking a swipe at NAR, well maybe NAR deserves it, as I never seem to see any news come from NAR that isn’t always rosy.

Tough markets, down markets and depressed markets should not be scary or seen as a negative. It should be seen as an opportunity. Taking opportunity in these markets can be very rewarding if approached with proper research and patience.