housing

Simi Valley Home Sales Report For August 2010

September 17, 2010 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

The number of single-family detached homes sold in Simi Valley for the month of August 2010 retreated slightly for a second straight month. While interest rates are favorable, loan qualification is tougher and buyers are not quick to jump into a purchase with the lack of tax credits for incentives. The popular price range continued to dominate the under $500K price range. The good news in the market is that the pricing has remained fairly stable over the last year. The Simi Valley Housing market hit a low in May of 2009 and we have not seen prices attempt any return tn those lows.

The market is still very sensitive with the following factors weighing heavily on it’s ability to recover.

Employment – If people aren’t working, they aren’t going to qualify for financing. If companies are not creating jobs the economy is not growing. This creates a lack of confidence among home buyers.
Interest Rates – Low interest Rates will entice buyers to enter the market, but any up-shift in rates reduces the buyer’s price range options and will slow the market.
Short Sales – These homes available to buyers can afford some good value, however they are unpredictable and add to buyer uncertainty in the market place.
Foreclosures – These properties are perceived as bargains, but usually are burdened with maintenance issues and difficult seller terms. The banks are slow to release these properties to market and the backlog adds to buyer uncertainty in the market place.
Loan Modification – These potential sellers can spend many months trying to modify their loans before eventually trying to Short Sell their home. The long process to help these home owners adds to overall uncertainty in the housing market.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: hme sales, housing, market update, Simi Valley

Second straight month Simi Valley Home Sales drop – Inventory edging up

March 3, 2010 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Second straight month Simi Valley Home Sales drop – Inventory edging up

The Simi Valley Real Estate market may have more personalities than Sybil. December saw the highest closed sales for single family detached homes in Simi Valley for 2009 with 98 closings. I believe that year end accounting for many of the corporate sellers influenced the uncharacteristic high volume for December. January followed with 74 closings and now February with 59.

I have been pretty emphatic that this will be a bumpy recovery so let’s look at the mixed signals.

This information is for single family detached homes in Simi Valley only. The reason why I leave out the condos and town homes is that HOA dues coupled with requirements for FHA and VA financing have influence on those sales that we do not see on Single Family detached homes. Also, single family detached homes are affordable which is redirecting demand away from the townhome/condo market.

2009 Monthly volume slightly picked up to an average or 80 closings per month over 2008′s 78 closings per month.
Conventional 20% down Buyers and All Cash Buyers in February controlled 74.5% of the purchases
Inventory has increased 15% over the last couple months.
The most active segment of the market continues to be in the under $500,000 purchase range.
List to sell ratios in the entry level homes was almost 100% until recently. Now these home are selling approximately 97% of the original list price.
Average Sales Price showed signs of stability last year and had a slight increase over the last 12 months.
Historically low interest rates help affordability and stabilize pricing.
Federal Tax incentives.

Looking at the closings for February and any likely trends, we see that in 2006 there were 112 closings, 2007 there were 75 closings, 2008 there were 53, 2009 there were 60 and this year (2010) 59. Anticipating that a few sales will report late, even if that number moves up 5 closings, we can see nothing really significant is going on with the Simi Valley Housing market to signal a full recovery.

As encouraging as the average pricing has been, I think that there are too many other factors that could influence the market at this time. I doubt that any huge drop in pricing is eminent as last year saw some incredible buys that cannot be duplicated at this time. For example, I sold a house on Hope street in east Simi Valley last year. The sale price at $252,000 for 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths would be bid up today near $300,000 if available.

I can only reiterate – if you are looking to buy a house to live in, possibly raise a family, then a long term buy and hold is the mindset for this market, If you are looking for a short term turn around, then an open market purchase will probably not work with your goals and you will need to evaluate where to participate for properties that can be purchased under market value. Typically these target properties for turn-around will not be “creme puffs”. Homes that have upgrades, have minimal maintenance issues and are showcased to sell are not going out a bargain basement prices.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: closings, fha, Home Sales, housing, Simi Valley, VA

Simi Valley Home Sales Report YTD – October 31, 2009

November 24, 2009 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

Simi Valley California home sales were down in October 2009. This is very interesting in that the market has been pushed in a positive direction by the first-time home buyers tax credit. In September and October buyers knew that the tax credit was scheduled to expire on November 30, this should have reflected in an increase in sales. So far, November sales of single-family detached homes will be stronger than October. Looking closer at these November sales, the majority are in the entry-level price range making this increased activity for November closely tied to the tax credit.

With the extension of the tax credit moved to April 30, 2010, activity should remain brisk as buyers try to take advantage one final time.

Key factors including the affordability, low interest rates, and low inventory are keeping first-time buyers and the investor market very interested in home purchases. While the economy struggles both nationally, statewide and regionally; home buyers and home sellers should be aware that any recovery will most likely be drawn out over a course of years and fairly bumpy from here on out.

What this means for Simi Valley home sellers is that equity recovery is probably not around the corner, but the low inventory levels are helping sellers remain with a slightly stronger negotiating position over the buyers.

What this means for Simi Valley home buyers is that this high level of affordability will continue to create competition for the low supply of inventory.

You’ll notice below that I’m changing the format of my standard monthly market update for Simi Valley home sales. While the averages from the multiple listing service are interesting, if you’ve seen the charting I have posted over the last year, those averages are skewed as the lower end of the market is behaving much differently than the upper end.

Simi Valley single-family detached activity up through October 31, 2009 was as follows:

Total Detached Homes Sold = 60
Average Sale Price = $460,845
Average Market Time = 82 days

Of these sold properties – 11 were short sales and 12 were foreclosures. The remaining 38 were non-distressed sales.

Total Detached Homes Active For Sale = 183

Of these active properties, 25 were short sales and 11 were foreclosures. The remaining 147 were non-distressed sales and an additional 270 homes were in escrow, with 173 of those Detached homes as short sales and 33 foreclosures.

An evident monthly trend is the extremely high ratio of detached homes in escrow compared to available inventory and actual closed sales. This further points to the difficulty sellers are having with short sales. To understand why there is such a high failure rate on short sales please see my article: What Is a Short Sale And Can I Short Sell My House

Simi Valley Town Homes & Condominiums are reacting better and this trend is most likely tied to the low interest rates, affordability and the first-time home buyer tax credit.

Total Attached Homes Sold = 25
Average Sale Price = $277,907
Average Market Time = 93 days

Of these attached properties sold, 6 homes were short sales and 4 homes were foreclosures. The remaining 15 homes were non-distressed sales.

Total Attached Homes Active For Sale = 50

Of these Attached Active Properties, 15 were short sales and 2 were foreclosures. The remaining 33 were non-distressed sales and an additional 133 Attached Simi Valley homes in escrow with 63 as short sales and 12 as foreclosures.

Both in the attached and detached Simi Valley housing sectors these high numbers of short sales are very important to track. Month after month after month, large numbers of homes in escrow have been dominated by short sellers. An average of 80 single-family detached homes are closing escrow each month and 18 attached homes closing. The large volume of nonperforming loans and bad assets are not dominating the low closing rates and seeing that less than 50% of the monthly sales are distressed properties, the low success rate in purging the market of the short sales, will keep any recovery slow.

For more information please see:

Search for Homes in Simi Valley California

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Escrow, Foreclosures, Home Buyers, Home Sellers, homes sold, housing, Market Report, Short Sale, Simi Valley

The Lunatics Have Taken Over The Asylum

November 19, 2009 By Ted Mackel 5 Comments

The lunatics have taken over the asylum. (CNBC video interview at end of this post)

Lunatic Beside being the song title of a 1980s new wave band (Fun Boy Three), the title of this post may be more accurate than even I realize.

I follow the papers, several blogs including Calculated Risk, Square Feet Blog, industry blogs such as Inman and it is clear to me that the newspapers blow with the wind. One day everything is great and the next day everything is terrible. My industry sources, such as trade associations and even companies like Dataquick are too quick to create sensational headlines that are almost as obnoxious as the newspapers. I have been telling my clients for long time now that this is going to be a long recovery and bumpy along the way. There is opportunity in every market – even this market; it just takes determination and persistence.

For example, just two days ago, Dataquick’s headline from their own website is “Southern California Home Sales Increase“. While the over all article does a pretty good job explaining what’s been happening, I think it’s still tries to paint a rosy picture prematurely. While certain sections of Southern California are reacting better than others, the Simi Valley housing market is still below pace for any type of stable or normal market.

Looking at some of today’s headlines we see “Seriously Delinquent Mortgages Versus Unemployment Rate” and “Strong Dollar, Weak Data Pummels Stocks” and “Three-Month Treasury Bill Yields Turned Negative“. Yet the desire to cheer-lead back or will back the real estate market will appear in a conflicting article in the next few days.

What is extremely important for Simi Valley home buyers and home sellers is to understand at this time is, any claim of a recovery or stabilization, is just more premature thought or whistling in the dark. There’s still plenty of bad venom in the mortgage markets and housing markets that need to work through the system before we can see substantial relief.

Low inventories have favored sellers and low interest rates have enticed buyers, a long-term strategy in residential real estate is probably a safer play. The entry-level housing combined with the historically low interest rates has created affordability for a large segment of the market. The upper level housing has not mirrored the entry level housing.

We know there are still record numbers of bad loans, mortgages not being paid on time, adjustable mortgages getting ready to reset, modification programs, short sales, and foreclosures being held off the market; that the fragile environment created by government intervention ,the banking industry’s manipulation of inventories and interest rates can only be sustained for a limited amount of time.

The economy grew for a long time based on unsustainable consumer spending tied not to discretionary income, but rather to home-equity spending. Now that home equity spending has been cut off and credit lines are being closed and reduced, the consumer spending Wall Street is waiting for will not return. This all trickles down through the economy affecting jobs and housing.

While the headlines will continue to seesaw consider the information in this interview on CNBC with Meredith Whitney.

CAUTION, CAUTION, CAUTION is all I have to say. Do your research, a smart buy or move up purchase can be found in this market as long as you keep your ear to the ground.

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

Filed Under: Buyers, Real Estate News, Sellers Tagged With: housing, Market, real estate, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Housing Market Update YTD September 30, 2009

October 18, 2009 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

simi valley home sales volume single family detached 2009

CLICK to ENLARGE this Chart

Simi Valley Housing Market Update YTD September 30, 2009

Simi Valley Home Sales are following the typical pattern we’ve seen over the last several months. Home sales are still below prior year levels and the impact of the first-time home buyer tax credit, historically low inventory, historically low interest rates continue to drive the entry-level end of housing. I posted a colorful chart which shows the bulk of the sales still are under 500,000. What has been surprising is, as I went back over June, July and August there were additional closings that wee reported late which move those numbers up. We’re still averaging about 80 sales a month for 2009 but with the new information the summer months were more stable than indicated prior to the late reporting.

If you are a Simi Valley home buyer the market still poses obstacles for those looking to purchase homes under $500,000. We are seeing competition for these homes in the form of large down payments and multiple buyers.

In reviewing the Simi Valley home sales from January 2009 through September 2009, approximately 65% of all homes sold in Simi Valley were purchased with conventional financing, another 10% with all cash offers. This leaves approximately 25% of the sales using VA or FHA low down payment financing. What this means for future home buyers is that your competition will not only be the low inventory, it will be other buyers with higher down payments. While an FHA or VA loan can bring the same offer price to a seller, sellers tend to feel more comfortable with higher down payment conventional loans than their FHA or VA counterparts. Also sellers who have homes with any deferred maintenance could obstacles for FHA or VA financing over those maintenance items.

If you are a home seller to low inventory, low interest rates and the tax credit has definitely created interested buyers. If your home is below $500,000 to low inventory is created fewer competing homes for potential buyers to view. What is interesting about this market is that if your home is over $500,000 low inventory becomes less and less a factor as the price of your home movies up. In fact earlier charts have posted show inventory surpluses in the homes that are in the 700,000 $1 million range.

Part of my day involves completing Broker Price Opinions for several area banks. A “BPO” is requested by banks trying to value distressed properties on their asset sheets. My task for the bank is to evaluate the property they have given me by locating closings and listings in the area that will give the bank an idea of the value of the subject property. I’m completing BPO’s for Simi Valley, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks, Westlake, Agoura, Hidden Hills, Calabasas, Woodland Hills, West Hills, Chatsworth, Tarzana, Canoga Park, Winnetka, Northridge, Porter Ranch, Reseda and Encino. I have completed close to 200 in the last 12 months.

This look into the values of properties and surrounding areas shows interesting trends in the general market from entry level to high end. The trends I have been reporting on in Simi Valley are seen in these other areas.

A number of issues remain unresolved for the market from here going out, there is discussion in Washington DC to extend the first-time buyer’s tax credit and also open the tax credit to existing homeowners however this has not been voted on or finalized by the House or Senate. Any hikes in interest rates over 6% or higher will impact buyer payments as well. There are still record amount of loans in trouble, foreclosed properties and the unemployment levels will have lingering effects on the market over the next couple of years.

There are big advantages in purchasing a home in this market if the purchase is not an impulse buy. Affordability is at the highest levels in a very long time combined with low interest rates, Simi Valley home buyers have a great opportunity to make a smart buy.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes

Active Listings	Simi Valley	Moorpark
Active
# Units	337	111
Average List Price	558,761	1,082,370
Average Days Listed	107	131

Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units	119	18
Average List Price	456.011	704,586
Average Days on Market	65	74

Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units	716	191
Average List Price	467,300	578,603
Average Sold Price	458,397	562,665
Average Days Listed	83	84

Average Closed Sales per month	79.55	21.22
Unsold Inventory Index (in months)	4.24	5.23

Activity – Single Family Attached Homes

Active Listings	Simi Valley	Moorpark
Active
# Units	134	23
Average List Price	302,738	266,163
Average Days Listed	192	105

Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units	31	17
Average List Price	276,791	265,419
Average Days on Market	74	72

Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units	151	62
Average List Price	282,911	267,314
Average Sold Price	275,922	261,742
Average Days Listed	94	86

Average Closed Sales per month	15.25	7.13
Unsold Inventory Index (in months)	8.79	3.23

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!
Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty
Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,
specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate
(805) 432-7705

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: housing, Market Updates, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Dog Park Now Open

March 20, 2009 By Ted Mackel 9 Comments

Simi Valley Dog Park Big Sky Lost Canyons

Simi Valley Dog Park Now Open

(Map Below) I made it up to the Simi Valley Dog Park last Monday Evening with my pooch “Bentley”. I was quite surprised. I love the location. This section of Simi Valley in the Santa Susana Mountains is breathtaking and has the best views of the surrounding hills, canyons and valley…better than Long Canyon and Wood Ranch. To get to the Simi Valley Dog Park go north on Erringer from the 118 freeway, then at Lost Canyons make a right turn and then at Parkside make a left. Drive past the ball fields and up to the top, past the water tank. The Simi Valley Dog Park is completely fenced in, divided in two sections, one section for large breeds and the other for small breeds. This is in the Big Sky housing development on the north central side of Simi Valley.

This is going to be a popular place for dog lovers to come and play with their dogs and let their dogs socialize with other dogs.

Simi Valley Dog Park Located in the Big Sky Lost Canyons developments

I even thought that if you were a dog lover, but did not have a home that could accommodate dog ownership, you could visit the park and enjoy the dogs. The Simi Valley Dog Park is a great place to visit if you are planning to purchase or rescue a dog soon, as you can meet dog owners and ask questions and observe how the different breeds interact.

This park is beautiful and something our city needed. The only flaw I could find in the Simi Valley Dog park was the watering station. It was not well planned and it has turned into a mud pit very close to the entrance. This can be fixed and should prove to be a temporary nuisance.

To get to the park take Erringer north to Lost Canyons Drive and turn right. Then go to 2151 Lost Canyons Dr. Simi Valley Ca 93065. When you see the Baseball field on the left you are almost there. Turn left into the entrance of the base ball fields and drive past the fields all the way up to the top of the hill. The Google Map below has an old satellite photo.
View Larger Map

Filed Under: Local Events & Activities, Simi Valley News Tagged With: Big Sky, Dog Park, housing, Lost Canyons, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate YTD Sales Report through February 2009

March 4, 2009 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate YTD Sales Report through February 2009

The Headline for Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate is…..”NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED”. That is except for inventory continues to shrink. Typically shrinking inventories favor sellers with modest increases in pricing, but the combination of tight lending criteria, our recession/depression, unemployment now over 10% in the State of California and a glut of Foreclosed – Short Sale properties for sale; Buyers remain cautious and bearish. Sure you will hear some hype about multiple offers and Buyers having a hard time getting an offer to go through, but if you look at the over all picture, the numbers for Simi Valley Real Estate show that we are about where we started off last year (2008). The following Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate YTD Sales Report is created by myself and posted monthly on this blog. Make sure to look though the Market Updates Category for past reports and trending.

If you are in the market to buy a house and you have missed out on one or more properties, be patient and don’t just settle for a house because of the pressure from other buyers. Many times there are much better homes in tip top shape that are getting overlooked because of the action on the Foreclosed and Short Sale homes. The lure in a lower price will be offset by numerous repairs and home improvements you will have to deal with, as deferred maintenance is typical of Short Sale and Foreclosed homes.

Be sure to subscribe to this blog on the upper right hand side of the page either by email or RSS feed as I will be posting pictures of some of the serious issues I am seeing in foreclosed homes, that will cost thousands of dollars to repair.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes

Active Listings	Simi Valley	Moorpark
Active
# Units	401	135
Average List Price	557,286	858,660
Average Days Listed	125	103

Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units	92	25
Average List Price	443,676	589,418
Average Days on Market	73	85

Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units	127	32
Average List Price	447,420	524,767
Average Sold Price	437,360	509,175
Average Days Listed	81	75

Average Closed Sales per month	63.5	16
Unsold Inventory Index (in months)	6.31	8.44

Activity – Single Family Attached Homes

Active Listings	Simi Valley	Moorpark
Active
# Units	125	28
Average List Price	317,530	281,517
Average Days Listed	148	112

Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units	17	14
Average List Price	255,782	241,999
Average Days on Market	120	77

Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units	20	15
Average List Price	255,935	268,223
Average Sold Price	251,228	263,540
Average Days Listed	75	118

Average Closed Sales per month	10	7.5
Unsold Inventory Index (in months)	10.6412.5	3.73

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: homes, housing, Market Updates, Moorpark Market update, real estate, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Housing Sales Volumes 2006-2009 (Easy Charts)

February 10, 2009 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley Housing Sales Volumes 2006-2009 (Easy Charts)

Each month I prepare my market updates which can be found in the Market Update section of my blog under Catagories. I also track on a spread sheet the volumes so I can compare yearly volumes by month and try to spot any trends. Below are the updated charts (done in Apple iWork 08).

simi valley housing volumes sales for 2006-2009

simi valley housing volumes listings 2006-2009

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: homes, housing, market update, Market Updates, real estate, Simi Valley

Phantom Inventories can be Deceiving (Simi Valley housing report)

January 25, 2009 By Ted Mackel 6 Comments

Phantom Inventories can be Deceiving (Simi Valley housing report)

Simi Valley Phantom Inventory Real Estate We are constantly hearing all the time that Simi Valley housing inventories are shrinking and that sales are picking up. I have talked about it in my market updates. Let me put this in context. What most are not aware of is the Phantom Inventory that has not been put on the open market; meaning that the Banks are carrying a much large amount of inventory and this inventory has intentionally not been submitted to the Multiple Listing Services to be marketed.

As a REO agent for a southern California bank, I have seen the Phantom Inventory in action. Just two weeks ago I was assigned a property in Simi Valley. The typical procedure includes determining if anyone is living in the property and if that is the case, then I am authorized to work to get the occupant(s) out. This particular property I was told that if there as anyone occupying the property to report back and wait before proceeding. Essentially the hold over occupants will be living in property and will continue to live rent free until the bank decides it is time to move forward.

RealtyTrac, an online service that provides pre-foreclosure and post foreclosure property data, claims that they have more homes in their database counts than what is listed on the Multiple Listing service according to a recent CNN article.

Several of the listings I have, sat vacant for several weeks before I was given the okay to start marketing. This lag can create a false picture to those agents that are not monitoring the markets and general public who rely on traditional news sources for their information.

Typically real estate performance reports are generated from data provided by DataQuick, however this service does not show the differences between the MLS databases and RealtyTrac. Nor dose the anyone but broker subscribers have access to the MLS data and reports to make those comparisons.

Simi Valley Real Estate Foreclosure Avalanche

What this all boils down too as you hear the hype about increased sales; know that there is still a large volume of foreclosed properties that have yet enter the market. There is still a large number of pre-foreclosure properties that are right behind the Phantom Inventory.

This real estate inventory build up is much like the build up of snow at ski resorts. The ski patrol goes out early in the morning and intentionally creates avalanches to ease the pressure of the snow build up so a larger more dangerous avalanche does not occur while skiers are out during the day.

If the government and the banks are not careful and do not start to release some of the build up in inventory, we could get hit by a avalanche of inventory all at once and drive prices down at much larger percentages than what is already projected.

Filed Under: Buyers, Market Updates, Real Estate News, Sellers Tagged With: foreclosure, housing, inventory, Market Updates, Phantom, pre-forclosure, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Housing Market and Economy is in for long recovery

November 13, 2008 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley Housing Market and Economy is in for long recovery

If you want hype, then my Blog is not the place to hangout. If you want doom and gloom then think twice before you read this post. The future of Simi Valley’s housing market is no where near as rosy as many of my colleagues would what you to believe, but with careful planing and patients many people will buy and sell homes successfully in the difficult Simi Valley housing market that lies ahead. The fact is that Eight times more millionares are made in recessions than in good economic times.

The loan programs that created the unprecedented run up of Simi Valley housing prices will not return. Those programs accounted for almost 30% of the home buyers during run up. Take 30% of the buyers out of any business model and it is easy to see why we are in the mess we are in. Now consider that those buyers will never return to the market and it is very easy to understand that when the bottom hits, it will be a slow climb out. The one bright spot in our future is that the population is grown and California attacks more people than those that move out of the area, so demand will always be a positive factor in Simi Valley’s housing market.

Ventura County has a slow controlled growth attitude both on the city and county levels which will keep inventories low.

Below is an interview with Robert Schiller on the future of the economy.