May 23, 2012

Simi Valley February 2012 Home Sales Report

Simi Valley house for saleSales of single-family detached homes in Simi Valley are getting interesting. February’s numbers are showing support of my discussion that we are near or at a market bottom. Now those that live in hype, the carnival barker types, are probably out on every street corner prematurely celebrating recovery.

Taking time and looking at what has happened over the last couple years and more specifically the last 12 months, what has become very clear and very simple as that this is a very good real estate market. However, it is only good for those who are educated on the main points that are driving this market.

If you look at the chart (at the bottom of this post), the one thing that jumps out on the page is that all the list to sale ratios significantly improved. We need to understand why this is happening or we might as well join the premature celebration. As I have stated in prior reports, investor buyers and landlords have been out purchasing property at an increased rate for several months. Investors always lead the market while regular buyers stand back trying to find the exact timing for the bottom of the market.

So why are more homes going out close to full asking price?

Here the following factors:

  • Pricing across most Simi Valley neighborhoods dropped as much as 10% in 2011
  • Short sales comprise a significant portion of these sales. They are typically already priced below market and many times approvals are at list price or above. In surveying the short sales that closed escrow in February, more than 80% closed at the asking price or higher. This in no way can be considered as buyers rushing in to bid up pricing.
  • Bank owned homes or foreclosed homes are being priced aggressively by their corporate owners to shorten market time.
  • Many of the properties at their current pricing will generate decent cash flow if purchased for a rental.

Again, looking at the chart and comparing to the prior months, volume has not increased.  Median Price has been dropping each month with a brief bump up in December.  February 2012 had the lowest Median Home Price for single-family detached homes sold in Simi Valley since I started tracking this metric back in January 2008. Average sales price of Simi Valley single-family detached homes has dipped below $400,000 for the very first time.

Simi Valley Median Home Price Chart

This is why it is extremely important to look at the overall picture. While pricing is probably at one of the most attractive affordability rates in a long long time, buyers are cautious and deliberate when it comes time to writing their offers. The one clear signal to continue to watch is the activity of the investors and landlords as they continue to snap up properties for their portfolios; buyers ready to buy a home today should not sit and try to time the market for an absolute bottom.

Inventory is extremely tight, prices as low as 2002 levels and with interest rates for conforming loans under 4%, we will see months like February and properties will begin to sell closer to asking price.  Any upward move in pricing will be temporary as buyers will back off before participating in a run up.

February Home Sales Simi ValleyUnless inventory increases we should expect to see some more of the same numbers for March Simi Valley home sales.


Simi Valley January 2012 Home Sales Report

After increased sales in December should we expect a carry over into the new year?  Probably not.  January closings for Simi Valley Single Family Detached (SFD) homes back off as I suspected.  This retraction does not indicate another drop in prices, but is more of the same of what we have seen over the last 6-8 months.

Not to sound like a broken record, but here is how January ended up:

  • The number of SFD Simi Valley homes under $300k remain elevated
  • Less than half of the SFD homes under $300k are purchased using low down payment financing
  • Investors/Landlords are still accumulating and looking for additional rental properties
  • Sales of Simi Valley Homes above $800k  are still sluggish
  • Buyers continue to try and time the market while the investors are out tying up properties with low interest financing and attractive selling prices.

The list to sell ratio has moved from a 3% average to almost 7% average over course of the last couple years.  This gap is wide enough to show that buyers are not bidding home prices up.  That any property listed for sale that is not competitive with the surrounding homes go through a course of price reductions till it meets buyer expectations.

January 2012 Simi Valley Home Sales

 

 

 

Simi Valley June 2011 Real Estate Market Report

simi valley homes for sale june 2011 chartThe Simi Valley June 2011 Real Estate Market Report is showing some improvement for June single family detached homes (SFD) sold.  Average home price for Simi Valley rose approximately $30,000.00 on increased volume.  While the rise in average sale price may be encouraging, it is premature to present this as any sign of recovery.  The number of SFD Simi Valley homes selling under $300,000 remained higher than past trends and the bulk of the properties selling in the Simi Valley still dominate the $300,000 to $400,000 range. An interesting statistic to note is that conventional and cash buyers are out numbering the FHA/VA buyers.  The increase volumes below $300,000 for Simi Valley SFD homes still shows softness in the overall real estate market.  Buyers are taking advantage of lower prices and low interest rates which is driving slightly higher sales volumes.

Nationally, MacroMarkets, LLC recent (June 2011) survey of industry economists and real estate experts showed that most believe that housing prices will hit their bottom this year and may have in the 1st quarter, leading to stability of pricing through 2015.

Shiller added, “If it were to materialize, such a scenario might be better described as a forecast of price stability rather than a rebound.  A 2% a year home price increase will not inspire a lot of consumer confidence.

simi valley homes for sale june 2011 table

simi valley homes for sale june 2011 chart

Simi Valley Detached Home Sales Market Report Ending May 2010

Simi Valley detached home sales for May of 2010 essentially matched the results of May 2009. While May sales saw an increase in sales volume over the first four months of 2010, the expiration of the tax credit should have accounted for a higher sales volume. The federal tax credit deadline finishes on June 30 and Simi Valley sales closings better pick up before June 30 if anyone wants to claim the federal tax credit was a stimulus on the real estate market.

The same story continues month, after month, after month with sales under $500,000 dominating the market and the majority of those are under $400,000. All purchases are still dominated by 20% down conventional financing and combined with the all cash Buyers. FHA purchases are accounting on average for about 33% of the sales.

The average sale price of a Simi Valley detached home declined significantly in the first quarter of 2010 and has rebounded over April and May, however, looking at the improvement in average Simi Valley sales price over 2009; this is still significantly below 2008 average sale price levels.

The historically low interest rates are helping stabilize prices from any future significant declines.

Simi valley single-family detached home sales for May 2000

Simi valley single-family detached home sales average prices 2008 through May 2010

Simi Valley Homes For Sale Market Report for April 2010

Simi Valley homes for sale for the month of April 2010 had a slight uptick. The gain in average sales price and the slight gain in the total number of Simi Valley homes sold, is largely related to the federal tax credit that expired April 30. Effects from the federal tax credit will be  seen in the Home sales reported for May and June as part of the tax credit regulation required that Simi Valley home buyers have a property in escrow by April 30 but close their escrows by June 30.

Still looking at the charts below you can see that the action is in the lower end of the markets as this trend has continued over the last year.  Even-though the tax credits have given us a little positive momentum there is still quite a bit of softness in home pricing throughout Simi Valley. A property I sold in May, in the Simi Valley Oakridge Estates, dropped below 2003 prices. Another property I am working on in the Madera Hills Tract would’ve had higher offers last fall than what we’ve been seeing this last week.

What has become significant in the Simi Valley market is the number of short sales occurring. Most of the listing calls I’m getting at this point are coming from people who need to short sell their property. While I work with plenty of equity sellers, short sales create their own drag on the overall market.

Simi Valley homes for sale April 2010 mark the report

This is a Quick Graph of the Volume of Simi Valley Home Sales by Month since 2003 for single family detached homes. If you follow the chart you can see that the May, June and July figures all stay pretty close over the last couple years beginning after 2007. The news such as papers and TV reports on a much larger regional scale which lump the sales data for very large areas into one report. If you’re planning to buy or sell a home in Simi Valley, you need to know what’s going on in Simi Valley in order to come up with a strong strategy. Please bookmark or subscribe to this blog so you can see what is going on locally in Simi Valley.

 Simi Valley homes for sale year-to-date 2003 through 2010

Search for Homes in Simi Valley California Simi Valley Property Values

 

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!
Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty
Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,
specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate
(805) 432-7705

Simi Valley Home Sales Report YTD – October 31, 2009

Simi Valley Detached Home Sales October 2008Simi Valley California home sales were down in October 2009. This is very interesting in that the market has been pushed in a positive direction by the first-time home buyers tax credit. In  September and October buyers knew that the tax credit was scheduled to expire on November 30, this should have reflected in an increase in sales. So far, November sales of single-family detached homes will be stronger than October. Looking closer at these November sales, the majority are in the entry-level price range making this increased activity for November closely tied to the tax credit.

With the extension of the tax credit moved to April 30, 2010, activity should remain brisk as buyers try to take advantage one final time.

Key factors including the affordability, low interest rates, and low inventory are keeping first-time buyers and the investor market very interested in home purchases. While the economy struggles both nationally, statewide and regionally; home buyers and home sellers should be aware that any recovery will most likely be drawn out over a course of years and fairly bumpy from here on out.

What this means for Simi Valley home sellers is that equity recovery is probably not around the corner, but the low inventory levels are helping sellers remain with a slightly stronger negotiating position over the buyers.

What this means for Simi Valley home buyers is that this high level of affordability will continue to create competition for the low supply of inventory.

You’ll notice below that I’m changing the format of my standard monthly market update for Simi Valley home sales. While the averages from the multiple listing service are interesting, if you’ve seen the charting I have posted over the last year, those averages are skewed as the lower end of the market is behaving much differently than the upper end.

Simi Valley single-family detached activity up through October 31, 2009 was as follows:

  • Total  Detached Homes Sold = 60
  • Average Sale Price = $460,845
  • Average Market Time = 82 days

Of these sold properties  – 11 were short sales and 12 were foreclosures. The remaining 38 were non-distressed sales.

  • Total  Detached Homes Active For Sale = 183

Of these active properties, 25 were short sales and 11 were foreclosures. The remaining 147 were non-distressed sales and an additional 270 homes were in escrow, with 173 of those Detached homes as short sales and 33 foreclosures.

An evident monthly trend is the extremely high ratio of  detached homes in escrow compared to available inventory and actual closed sales. This further points to the difficulty sellers are having with short sales. To understand why there is such a high failure rate on short sales  please see my article: What Is a Short Sale And Can I Short Sell My House

Simi Valley Town Homes & Condominiums are reacting better and this trend is most likely tied to the low interest rates, affordability  and the first-time home buyer tax credit.

  • Total Attached Homes Sold = 25
  • Average Sale Price = $277,907
  • Average Market Time = 93 days

Of these attached properties sold, 6 homes were short sales and 4 homes were foreclosures. The remaining 15 homes were non-distressed sales.

  • Total Attached Homes Active For Sale = 50

Of these Attached Active Properties, 15 were short sales and 2 were foreclosures. The remaining 33 were non-distressed sales and an additional 133  Attached Simi Valley homes in escrow with 63 as short sales and 12 as foreclosures.

Both in the attached and detached Simi Valley housing sectors these high numbers of short sales are very important to track. Month after month after month, large numbers of homes in escrow have been dominated by short sellers. An average of 80 single-family detached homes are closing escrow each month and 18 attached homes closing.  The large volume of nonperforming loans and bad assets are not dominating the low closing rates and seeing that less than 50% of the monthly sales are distressed properties, the low success rate in purging the market of the short sales, will keep any recovery slow.

For more information please see:

Search for Homes in Simi Valley California Simi Valley Property Values

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

Simi Valley Housing Market Update YTD July 31, 2009

Big Sky Simi Valley CaliforniaSimi Valley Housing Market Update YTD July 31, 2009

The Simi Valley housing market has not been boring lately.  Extremely low inventories, Super Low interest rates and the $8,000.00 Federal Tax Credit which expires December 1st have buyers whipped up into a frenzy competing for very few homes for sale.  This situation has stabilized the lower end of the market.  The middle section of the market has seen some side affects as listings in the middle price range, that are well maintained and in good locations, are snapped up fast.  however the middle and upper sections of Simi Valley home pricing still has a fair amount of negotiations going on, where the lower end of the market is in the middle of a bidding war.

We seen this all before in 2004-2005 and those buyers loosing their heads just for a chance at a $8,000.00 tax credit are going to wake up with a similar hang over as the home buyers did from the 2004-2005 market.  When the dust settles and inventory is more balanced,  there will be many buyers of this tight market that are going to realize they bought homes with serious deferred maintenance. This oversight is probably going to be a larger cost and job to tackle than they first realized erasing the benefit of the tax credit.

The fact is that as prices move up and buyers get squeezed out again, the next group of buyers will revolt.  We should see a pretty volatile up and down market for the next few years out, as the banks continue to sell off their bad assets and under performing loans.
Below is the activity for July. We can see a similar trend in that fewer homes sold in July than June and fewer homes sold in June than in May.    We have a tremendous amount of homes in escrow, but more than two thirds are  Short Sales and while more short sales are starting to close escrow there is still a very large balance that never close.

Currently there are 256 single family detached homes in Simi Valley that are in escrow.  165 of those homes are Short Sales, only 32 are foreclosures.  With a constant closing rate under 100 detached Simi Valley homes each month and similar escrow counts over the last few months, the fragility of the market is oh so obvious.  We have another wave of Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans coming due in 2010 and 2011 that I discussed last fall in this post  Adjustable Mortgage Reset Schedule

If you are a buyer and are worried you are going to miss the $8,000 tax credit, all I can say is don’t make an impulse buy now because the $8,000 you get as a tax credit may be far out weighed by a house that needs a ton of work.  Knowing that with 256 homes in escrow and only approximately 80 will close in August,  that means that 176 will not close and those 176 buyers will be pressed another month closer to the December 1st Tax credit deadline. I can see bad buying decisions multiply as we near the deadline.

How does this affect Sellers? Less competition means that you can sell your home quicker and negotiate less if you are below the $500,000 price range.  If your home is not a creme puff; then now is the time to consider selling your home as the lack of competing listings will take some pressure off your home being in showcase condition.  I need to emphasize “some” pressure.  If your your home is a kin to one of Cinderella’s step sisters that needs to be dressed up for the ball then consider consulting with a Home Stager; the cost is far lower than remodeling and can really make the difference on that first impression.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 337 121
Average List Price 577,637 1,041,213
Average Days Listed 113 117
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 115 21
Average List Price 436,222 616005
Average Days on Market 59 62
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 545 149
Average List Price 461,053 565,860
Average Sold Price 451,093 547,921
Average Days Listed 86 87
Average Closed Sales per month 77.86 21.29
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 6.99 6.99
Activity – Single Family Attached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 138 24
Average List Price 306,554 285,842
Average Days Listed 171 134
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 39 16
Average List Price 270,575 269,757
Average Days on Market 81 69
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 102 52
Average List Price 278,409 267,382
Average Sold Price 270,733 260,616
Average Days Listed 94 93
Average Closed Sales per month 14.57 7.43
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 9.35 3.23

Simi Valley Homes For Sale Market Report May 31st 2009

Simi Valley Homes For Sale Market Report May 31st 2009

My Video Commentary on the current Simi Valley Real Estate market conditions will follow shortly. For now the closing numbers up through the end of May are below. Oh Yeah, no we have not hit bottom yet…..I’ll explain later.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 336 107
Average List Price 596,548 1,039,990
Average Days Listed 122 119
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 133 30
Average List Price 447,936 540,551
Average Days on Market 67 94
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 372 97
Average List Price 450,372 568,373
Average Sold Price 440,218 543,801
Average Days Listed 87 79
Average Closed Sales per month 74.4 19.4
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 4.52 5.15
Activity – Single Family Attached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 129 29
Average List Price 307,286 265,860
Average Days Listed 174 123
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 23 9
Average List Price 264,604 292,657
Average Days on Market 81 58
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 66 38
Average List Price 271,800 260,764
Average Sold Price 264,504 252,390
Average Days Listed 83 97
Average Closed Sales per month 13.2 7.6
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 9.77 3.18

Simi Valley Real Estate Market Report YTD April 30 2009 (Video Blog)

Simi Valley Real Estate Market Report YTD April 30 2009

The table below contains the Simi Valley Homes for Sales numbers and closing numbers Year-To-Date April 30, 2009. One number that our Multiple Listing Service Statistical reports do not separate is the Active Listings. Our Simi Valley Multiple Listing service lumps the homes in “Back Up” status as active. This creates a false sense of how tight the inventory really is. For example if the average monthly sales rate for single family detached is 71 homes per month and we only have 175 homes Active that are not in “Back-Up” status then that is a 2.4 month supply of inventory, not a 5.54 month as our MLS report shows. 5-6 months is a very balanced market more is a buyers market and less is a supposed to be a Seller’s market. Prices are not increasing, but homes priced properly are selling fast.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 325 116
Average List Price 608,304 1,083,578
Average Days Listed 125 118
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 142 29
Average List Price 434,367 442,558
Average Days on Market 70 103
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 284 74
Average List Price 445,542 590,753
Average Sold Price 435,6304 565,761
Average Days Listed 83 73
Average Closed Sales per month 71.0 18.5
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 5.57 6.27
Activity – Single Family Attached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 126 24
Average List Price 311,362 271,397
Average Days Listed 169 119
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 24 14
Average List Price 272,492 274,859
Average Days on Market 109 68
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 48 30
Average List Price 273,461 626,445
Average Sold Price 265,161 253,264
Average Days Listed 81 108
Average Closed Sales per month 12.0 7.5
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 11.90 10.5

Simi Valley Real Estate Homes Market Report through 8-31-08

Simi Valley Real Estate Homes Market Report through 8-31-08

The following table is the activity for the home sales in Simi Valley and Moorpark. Combined sales of Attached and Detached homes in Simi Valley for the month of August was 106 units, this trend is slightly lower than the 115 unit average we have seen for the three months prior. The hottest segment of the Simi Valley real estate market currently are the foreclosures on the entry level for single family detached homes.  The Simi Valley Condo-Townhouse market remains much slower as the foreclosed detached homes are at a competing price level with no HOA fees.

The cream puffs of the Simi Valley foreclosure market are moving quickly with multiple offers as opposed to the foreclosures that need work which are taking longer to sell.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 475 157
Average List Price 598,784 918,923
Average Days Listed 93 92
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 107 17
Average List Price 522,173 527,852
Average Days on Market 72 122
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 656 148
Average List Price 542,325 620,264
Average Sold Price 521,509 598,925
Average Days Listed 85 100
Average Closed Sales per month 82.0 18.5
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 6.80 16.68
Activity – Single Family Attached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 130 46
Average List Price 345,724 401,673
Average Days Listed 114 72
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 37 8
Average List Price 276,622 272,575
Average Days on Market 60 92
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 113 37
Average List Price 328,628 325,894
Average Sold Price 316,912 314,330
Average Days Listed 83 86
Average Closed Sales per month 14.13 4.63
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 12.17 9.94