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Simi Valley August 2011 Home Sales Volume Slows Average Sales Price Rebounds

September 5, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Simi Valley House for saleSimi Valley Homes Sales in August 2011 for single family detached units slowed.  The pullback is not alarming and was something I anticipated after such a strong showing in July for the following reasons:

  • People like to move before school starts (contributing to July increased sales).
  • Prices have continued to decline making many Simi Valley homes for sale attractive-good-buys.
  • Interest Rates continue at historic low rates.  (Money is cheap)
  • National Economic News in August and big drops in the Stock Market rocked consumer confidence.
  • The Political Atmosphere in Washington DC (created by all parties) is killing consumer confidence.

The average sales price showed some rebound, but I want to recap what the average sales price and the median sales price really tells us.

If you look at the charts I post each month, I break down the sales in price brackets by $100,000 ranges.  You can see each month that the bulk of all Simi Valley single family detached homes are selling under $500,000.  Some months no houses sell in the upper end of the market and when this happens the average sales price can swing pretty dramatically.  In the recent months that swing was influenced by a larger number of homes selling under $300,000.  This trend started in January 2011 and continued on through August.

The Average Price method of looking at the market can give a good idea of how the upper end of the housing market is moving.  dramatic decreases in average sales price indicates the upper end units are not selling.  While the the Median price reveals more of how the average all market is reacting in general.

The last three years has revealed that the low end is selling, what is interesting to watch is how the upper end of the Market (above $500,000) is selling. When Prices are aggressive and interest rates are low investors and landlords come in on the lower end properties as we have been seeing this year in Simi Valley.  The general public typically lags behind the investor activity.  A healthy market in the upper price ranges can indicate better employment opportunities (an improving economy).  It can signal that employers may look to Simi Valley as a place to locate and it can bolster the local economy with a higher demographic of shoppers, all of which can influence property prices upward.

The summary is that the upper markets are still struggling, and the over all perception of good buys is fully being realized by investors and those with conventional financing looking to lock in low interest rate for the long haul.

Past Market Reports:

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

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Simi Valley Home Sales Report For August 2010

September 17, 2010 By 1 Comment

Simi Valley Housing Market ReportThe  number of single-family detached homes sold in Simi Valley for the month of August 2010 retreated slightly for a second straight month.  While interest rates are favorable, loan qualification is tougher and buyers are not quick to jump into a purchase with the lack of tax credits for incentives.  The popular price range continued to dominate the under $500K price range.  The good news in the market is that the pricing has remained fairly stable over the last year.  The Simi Valley Housing market hit a low in May of 2009 and we have not seen prices attempt any return tn those lows.

The market is still very sensitive with the following factors weighing heavily on it’s ability to recover.

  1. Employment – If people aren’t working, they aren’t going to qualify for financing.  If companies are not creating jobs the economy is not growing.  This creates a lack of confidence among home buyers.
  2. Interest Rates – Low interest Rates will entice buyers to enter the market, but any up-shift in rates reduces the buyer’s price range options and will slow the market.
  3. Short Sales – These homes available to buyers can afford some good value, however they are unpredictable and add to buyer uncertainty in the market place.
  4. Foreclosures – These properties are perceived as bargains, but usually are burdened with maintenance issues and difficult seller terms.  The banks are slow to release these properties to market and the backlog adds to buyer uncertainty in the market place.
  5. Loan Modification – These potential sellers can spend many months trying to modify their loans  before eventually trying to Short Sell their home.  The long process to help these home owners adds to overall uncertainty in the housing market.

Simi Valley Home Sales August 2010

Simi Valley Home Sales August 2010 Chart

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Simi Valley Housing Market Update YTD August 31, 2009

September 10, 2009 By Leave a Comment

Simi Valley Housing Market Update YTD August 31, 2009

Simi Valley Home Sales through August 31, 2009 continue with similar trending patterns as June, July and August are following our typical seasonal patterns of lower volumes as we head in to the fourth quarter.  Simi Valley Single Family detached homes peaked in May at 92 closings and pulled back to 80 a month for June, July and August.  This is 18 units fewer than in 2008 for June and July; 7 fewer than August 2008.  While low interest rates, historically low inventory and the $8000.00 federal tax credit for first time buyers continues to drive the lower end of the market,  the recovery is going to be protracted and drawn out.  Any substantial increase in interest rates, available inventory or pricing could put the brakes on an already struggling Simi Valley housing market.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 347 109
Average List Price 563,665 1,007,273
Average Days Listed 108 130
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 105 26
Average List Price 444,521 693,922
Average Days on Market 61 81
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 635 171
Average List Price 465,188 566,132
Average Sold Price 456,256 548,764
Average Days Listed 84 84
Average Closed Sales per month 79.38 21.38
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 4.37 5.10
Activity – Single Family Attached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 142 27
Average List Price 309,242 263,843
Average Days Listed 183 125
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 31 13
Average List Price 277,241 284,832
Average Days on Market 61 71
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 122 57
Average List Price 279,051 264,168
Average Sold Price 271,051 258,018
Average Days Listed 97 87
Average Closed Sales per month 15.25 7.13
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 9.31 3.79

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Simi Valley Housing Market Update YTD 6-30-09

August 6, 2009 By 1 Comment

Simi Valley Housing Market Update YTD 6-30-09

While the unit number below show a total inventory of 342 Simi Valley Homes for Sale,  the reality is that under 170 are “Actives”; the balance are in escrow listed as “contingent”.  This is import in that these “contingent properties”  are mostly short sale properties and are not in a position to be “active” or take a back-up offer.  This false positive reporting hides that fact that inventory is at all time lows and coupled with the low interest rates and the $8,000 Federal Tax Credit for 1st Time buyers, the market has been whipped up into a frenzy.

The underlying National and State economies,  rising unemployment in California and the backlog of bad loans still on the books of many banks, will keep this market interesting for a while to come.  It ain’t over till it’s over and this is no time to make an impulse home purchase.

I ran the interest rates from 2002 through 2008 last year and what was particularly interesting is that every time the interest rate went over 6%, Simi Valley Real Estate came to a screeching halt.  Inventory exploded into very high levels and appreciation went from the teens to under a few percent each time.  We can only imagine what might happen in this fragile market if rates went over six percent and buyers had a much larger selection of properties to look at.

My point is that the government can only come up with gimmicks for so long, so be cautious and make a smart buy.  If you are a seller, well I should not have to tell you how great it is to be selling in a low inventory market.  Just don’t get greedy, because if you wait too long things could change quickly.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 342 120
Average List Price 595,238 988,024
Average Days Listed 121 107
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 121 31
Average List Price 443,546 645,272
Average Days on Market 67 88
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 437 108
Average List Price 461,093 563,002
Average Sold Price 451,050 450,095
Average Days Listed 85 81
Average Closed Sales per month 72.83 18.00
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 4.69 6.68
Activity – Single Family Attached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 138 27
Average List Price 307,570 257,735
Average Days Listed 178 123
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 26 18
Average List Price 260,167 280,590
Average Days on Market 82 74
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 80 39
Average List Price 274,483 261,948
Average Sold Price 266,831 253,539
Average Days Listed 95 98
Average Closed Sales per month 13.33 6.5
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 10.35 4.15

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Simi Valley Real Estate Home Sales Market Update March 2009 YTD

April 9, 2009 By 2 Comments

Simi Valley Real Estate Home Sales Market Update March 31 2009 YTD

The Charts in the video are posted below the table for further study.

One disclaimer is that the MLS data adds the homes that are contingent in a backup status with the Active Listings.  This is not a true picture for the real market conditions.  A disproportionate number of these homes in backup status are Short Sales and could possibly be a home that never closes escrow.  The picture is rosier than it looks.  This is why I post the charts, so the information can be compared to prior years.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 354 137
Average List Price 584,746 1,007,419
Average Days Listed 122 105
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 120 22
Average List Price 430,727 525,809
Average Days on Market 69 54
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 212 57
Average List Price 445,630 609,357
Average Sold Price 436,334 583,091
Average Days Listed 85 80
Average Closed Sales per month 70.67 19.00
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 5.00 7.21
Activity – Single Family Attached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 127 27
Average List Price 308,574 273,053
Average Days Listed 154 115
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 21 12
Average List Price 280,788 280,143
Average Days on Market 86 63
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 32 25
Average List Price 259,375 256,986
Average Sold Price 251,539 249,861
Average Days Listed 88 97
Average Closed Sales per month 10.67 8.34
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 11.90 3.24

Simi Valley Real Estate New Listings Chart March 2009

Looking at each year, 2009 has started off with an extremely tight inventory. This is causing the competition, but if you look at the chart below, typically we should see tight inventory driving prices up, but this is not the case. The drop in the average sales price between December and January was significant. It will take a few more months to see if this market stabilizes. My big wonder in all this is what would the market be like if we had the higher inventory levels like last year.

Simi Valley Real Estate avg home sales report 3-2009

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Simi Valley Housing Sales Volumes 2006-2009 (Easy Charts)

February 10, 2009 By Leave a Comment

Simi Valley Housing Sales Volumes 2006-2009 (Easy Charts)

Each month I prepare my market updates which can be found in the Market Update section of my blog under Catagories.  I also track on a spread sheet the volumes so I can compare yearly volumes by month and try to spot any trends.  Below are the updated charts (done in Apple iWork 08).

simi valley housing volumes sales for 2006-2009

simi valley housing volumes listings 2006-2009

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Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate Market Update Jan-09 YTD

February 10, 2009 By Leave a Comment

Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate Market Update Jan-09 YTD

The following report contains the Year To Date housing activity for Simi Valey & Moorpark California.  At first glance it is nice to see that what was happening this time last year is not being repeated.  Sales for the January in Simi Valley was 35 total single family detached homes.  This year we had 73.  While this is good news.  It still will be some time before we will know where this market will bottom out.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 400 130
Average List Price 576,505 832,652
Average Days Listed 126 104
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 77 23
Average List Price 403,868 552,328
Average Days on Market 80 96
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 73 18
Average List Price 441,094 576,775
Average Sold Price 431,112 554,539
Average Days Listed 84 65
Average Closed Sales per month 73 18
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 5.478 7.22
Activity – Single Family Attached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 117 35
Average List Price 325,655 262,325
Average Days Listed 145 133
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 21 12
Average List Price 282,593 274,940
Average Days on Market 148 82
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 11 7
Average List Price 263,317 249,229
Average Sold Price 257,414 243,371
Average Days Listed 80 62
Average Closed Sales per month 11 7
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 10.64 5.00

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Simi Valley Real Estate Market Update Year Ending 12-31-08

January 9, 2009 By Leave a Comment

Simi Valley Real Estate Market Update Year Ending 12-31-08

Happy New Year!!! I wish I could tell you everything is going to get better quick, but really looking at the bigger picture, the whole country especially California will be in for interesting times. If you watched any of the news over the budget battles in Sacramento before the Holidays, the attempts of the state legislature to impose new taxes disguised at fees to avoid the required 2/3rds majority vote is one of the many indicators that the economy has a long way to go. Additionally the bail out money our national congress approved in the fall is going to waste. Close to 6 billion was used to buy a bank in China, some of the College football Bowl sponsoring banks were recipients of the bail out money, the bank execs are still living the high life and there seems to be no accountability required when our elected officials give out money.

While all this may sound like doom and gloom…it really is not. I just want you to temper what you hear about real estate and know that this is the time to buy, BUT and this is a big “but” there is no run up in real estate prices, so you can still make smart purchases. This is a time for a long term buy and hold strategy. I post the closing data YTD for each month here on my blog and you can find that under the market updates categories on the right hand side of the page.

Make sure to read past the year end table as there will be a few charts for Simi Valley Real Estate Trends that I think you will find interesting.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 392 125
Average List Price 560,821 879,395
Average Days Listed 129 110
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 79 20
Average List Price 417,280 491,615
Average Days on Market 82 74
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 972 227
Average List Price 522,247 611,736
Average Sold Price 504,897 585,287
Average Days Listed 91 105
Average Closed Sales per month 81.0 18.92
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 4.84 6.61
Activity – Single Family Attached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 107 44
Average List Price 327,641 349,628
Average Days Listed 136 110
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 25 6
Average List Price 268,374 249,117
Average Days on Market 103 61
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 173 58
Average List Price 316,392 313,577
Average Sold Price 306,003 303,502
Average Days Listed 85 94
Average Closed Sales per month 15.72 5.09
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 7.12 8.84

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Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate Market Update Nov 2008

December 10, 2008 By Leave a Comment

Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate Market Update Nov 2008

The Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate annual end of the year slow down has officially begun.  The only reasonable explanation for the slowdown has much to do with the holidays and people just not as motivated to do anything till the new year.  The historical data shows this trend to last up through February each year.  The good news is that last year (2007) Simi Valley home sales suffered more than just a slow down; Simi Valley hit record  lows in the number of homes sold..  This year Simi Valley home sales is well above that pace.

While it would be very premature to proclaim a market bottom at this time, average list prices and average sales prices for Simi Valley homes in November did not fall below October’s averages.  Additionally the decline in total homes for sale (inventory volume) looks to be slowing.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 431 131
Average List Price 572,856 893,088
Average Days Listed 114 104
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 73 17
Average List Price 417,688 454,841
Average Days on Market 78 75
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 908 206
Average List Price 526,669 613,540
Average Sold Price 510,582 588,025
Average Days Listed 89 106
Average Closed Sales per month 82.55 18.73
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 5.22 6.99
Activity – Single Family Attached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 112 45
Average List Price 324,627 351,563
Average Days Listed 136 110
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 25 6
Average List Price 268,374 249,117
Average Days on Market 103 61
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 173 58
Average List Price 316,392 313,577
Average Sold Price 306,003 303,502
Average Days Listed 85 94
Average Closed Sales per month 15.72 5.09
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 7.12 8.84

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Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate Market October 2008 Report – YTD Home Sales

November 5, 2008 By 1 Comment

Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate Market October 2008 Report – YTD Home Sales

The following table contains the numbers for the Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate housing market from January 1, 2008 through October 31, 2008.  Trending shows that the total number of homes for sale has decreased significantly since the beginning of the year.  Typically a tightening inventory creates advantages to the seller rather than the buyer and this has not been the case.  Tightened credit markets and trouble in the banking industry has made financing tougher.  While the number of homes sold on a monthly basis has been steady now since May, the bulk of that inventory has been in the lower end of pricing.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 447 138
Average List Price 577,632 886,337
Average Days Listed 93 91
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 93 17
Average List Price 447,376 549,883
Average Days on Market 70 57
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 820 193
Average List Price 532,683 603,738
Average Sold Price 513,927 583,175
Average Days Listed 84 99
Average Closed Sales per month 82.0 19.3
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 5.45 7.15
Activity – Single Family Attached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 115 44
Average List Price 338,400 367,164
Average Days Listed 118 74
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 33 67
Average List Price 286,816 303,114
Average Days on Market 69 55
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 153 48
Average List Price 319,898 311,969
Average Sold Price 308,732 301,525
Average Days Listed 80 94
Average Closed Sales per month 15.3 4.8
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 7.52 9.17

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