February 3, 2012

Simi Valley July 2011 Home Sales Surge on Volume Average Sale Price drops $57k

simi valley homes sold market updates for simi valley home sellers and buyersSee Simi Valley Homes For Sale under $300,000

The Simi Valley Real Estate Market is in the middle of a very interesting transition and while the traditional media and my industry tend to create reports that either cheer-lead or sell subscriptions; it would be prudent to really look at what has happened in July and a trend that started back in December of last year.

Sales of Simi Valley Single Family detached housing under $300,000 has been growing in volume.  Now, more than any other time since the bottom fell out of the real estate market in 2007, we are seeing prices drop and affordability rise with continued low interest rates.   In the Spring of 2009 we saw similar pricing, but investors rushed in and pushed pricing in this segment back up to the low $300,000 range.

What becomes even more interesting this time around is that of the 19 Simi Valley homes that sold under $300,000 in July 2011, 60% were purchased with conventional financing or cash with an average price of $278,000. Cash and conventional purchasers can be attributed to increased activity by investors looking for rental properties and properties in poor condition that could be restored and flipped.

What is causing Volumes to Surge? 

1. Prices/affordability 2. Low interest rates.

What is not happening on surging volumes?

Prices are not being run up.  Looking at Simi Valley Home Sales for July 2011 we can see that 84% of all sales were under $500,000 and that the top end over $900,000 had no sales for the month.  Sluggish sales over $500,000 contributes to the lower average sale price.

Tracking the average sale price does not necessarily mean that Simi Valley Home Owners have lost $57,000 in value, what it does indicate, is when you compare the average sale price each month over the course of time you can spot trends over the whole spectrum of price ranges, any major shifts between months as we are seeing between June (Simi Valley June Market Report) and July, helps us to look close at what is selling, who is buying and what are the conditions that are driving these sales.

Real Estate Markets are local,  traditional media tends to report regional and statewide Real Estate trends, which you can see don’t amount to much when we look at the activity for Simi Valley.

The local, State and Federal economic issues, $4.00 a gallon gasoline, employment opportunities have a huge influence on home buyers.  Additionally, the Foreclosure market, Short Sale Market and Loan Modification Market are still in the middle of their mountain of problems.

What is becoming clear from my experience with buyers in my car and looking at the trending data; buyers are very interested when pricing and condition are right, but they are unwilling to jack up the pricing (above market value) in bidding wars.

While this all may sound horrific to home sellers, this is all part or a greater stability that is forming.  Increasing volumes on lower prices is positive, what we don’t want to see is decreasing volumes and lower prices.

Simi Valley homes Sales for July 2011

Simi Valley homes Sales for July 2011 Graph

Asking for Closing Costs Could Cause Home Buyers To Over Pay For Their Purchase

Home Buyers leave money on the tableHome Buyers many times ask Home Sellers for concessions or assistance when they make an offer to purchase a home. The typical request from a home buyer is for closing costs, a home warranty, repairs or for the seller to include certain personal property items for sale. This article will focus on closing cost requests from home buyers.

The following information pertains to California real estate only. Real estate settlement and closing procedures vary from state to state, so if you are looking for information for real estate transactions in a state other than California, the information below may not apply to your situation.

As the Simi Valley housing market has lost value and sales have slowed, the requirements for buyers to get financing has become difficult at the same time. The Simi Valley real estate market has seen the most activity in homes selling under $450,000. The buyers in this price range typically have low down payment offers and do not have significant reserves or savings. The FHA loan program allows those buyers with limited resources to purchase homes with as little as 3 1/2% down. For Simi Valley this translates into approximately $8000-$15,000 minimum down payment needs; the FHA program helps these buyers get into homes.

Looking at Simi Valley homes selling for under $450,000, the typical closing costs associated with those home purchases can range in the $8000-$10,000 range. It has been a pretty common practice for buyers to write an offer asking the seller to concede up to 3% of the sale price to assist the buyer with these closing costs. While not all sellers have the ability to make this concession, the buyers will add this figure on top of their offer price so the seller will realize a net sales price closer to what is acceptable to the seller.

In 2010 the federal government changed the Good Faith Estimate (GFE) and tightened down regulations on this form to protect buyers from overpaying fees associated with obtaining financing. Once the buyer’s lender issues the GFE, the lender is bound by those numbers and has very few options to increase any of the figures on that statement. The 2010 GFE does allow for some minor adjustments, but overall the buyer can feel pretty good about the actual closing costs associated with their purchase and loan after receiving this document.   These new regulations with the GFE have created an issue in how buyers should ask for a closing cost credits from the sellers. If these credits are asked for without consideration of the new GFE requirements, the buyer can end up paying more for the property than they intended.

For example,

  1. The buyer asks for $10,000 credit toward closing costs in their offer to the seller.
  2. The seller is clear that they would like to receive no less than $400,000 for their property.
  3. The buyer’s offer is for $410,000 with the seller crediting back $10,000 toward the buyer’s closing costs.
  4. The seller accepts the offer and escrow is opened.
  5. The buyer now makes loan application with their lender.
  6. A GFE statement is issued within three days of the loan application outlining all the buyers costs.
  7. Those buyer costs total $8,000.
  8. The seller’s obligation is only $8,000 and the $2,000 difference is now realized by the seller in a net sale price of $402,000.
  9. The buyer just overpaid $2,000 more for the property than they originally intended to.

The example above outlines one of the problems Simi Valley home buyers may encounter when asking for closing costs to be credited by the sellers.

Some might say, ” when the buyer makes loan application, shouldn’t the lender set all the fees on the GFE statement to equal the $10,000?” The 2010 GFE was designed to outline  and identify the costs to obtain financing, so buyers could go out and compare the costs between different lenders. How would it be to the lender’s advantage to inflate the costs and fees; just to try and burn up a concession/credit from the seller? Also, why would anyone want to pay more for property or pay more for costs than they need to?

If you are a buyer who is considering asking for a seller concession in closing cost assistance, understand the ramifications of such requests. If reserves/savings are one of the driving issues into asking for this type of seller concession that is one thing, but if you are asking for the seller concession while you have the money to pay for these closing costs, consider the following:

  • Your property will be assessed for property taxes in the amount of the sales price. Is increasing the sales price worth paying additional property taxes over the course of time you own the property?
  • By offering more than the original listing price to cover your closing costs, remember you will be paying interest on the higher purchase loan amount for next 30 years (if your loan is amortized on a 30 year schedule). I’ve always felt that home buyers should deeply  reconsider (if possible) financing closing costs for 30 years. It’s does not make much since to pay interests on fees, since the first 20 years of the 30 year amortization schedule is weighted toward paying down the interest on the note.

Last, if you’re reading this article and you end up educating and instructing your real estate agent on these issues, ask yourself how well you’re being represented by an agent who’s not aware of these issues. If tour real estate agent is not aware of issues as important as the impact of closing costs on your pocketbook during negotiations of your home purchase; then what else are they unaware of that may leave your money on the table or put you at a disadvantage in negotiations?

My sellers will gladly accept the additional funds if your closing costs are overstated in your original offer.  Wouldn’t you feel better if you had an agent representing you trying as hard as they can to make sure you’re not leaving money on the table?  Call or text (805) 432-7705

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Simi Valley Homes For Sale Market Report for April 2010

Simi Valley homes for sale for the month of April 2010 had a slight uptick. The gain in average sales price and the slight gain in the total number of Simi Valley homes sold, is largely related to the federal tax credit that expired April 30. Effects from the federal tax credit will be  seen in the Home sales reported for May and June as part of the tax credit regulation required that Simi Valley home buyers have a property in escrow by April 30 but close their escrows by June 30.

Still looking at the charts below you can see that the action is in the lower end of the markets as this trend has continued over the last year.  Even-though the tax credits have given us a little positive momentum there is still quite a bit of softness in home pricing throughout Simi Valley. A property I sold in May, in the Simi Valley Oakridge Estates, dropped below 2003 prices. Another property I am working on in the Madera Hills Tract would’ve had higher offers last fall than what we’ve been seeing this last week.

What has become significant in the Simi Valley market is the number of short sales occurring. Most of the listing calls I’m getting at this point are coming from people who need to short sell their property. While I work with plenty of equity sellers, short sales create their own drag on the overall market.

Simi Valley homes for sale April 2010 mark the report

This is a Quick Graph of the Volume of Simi Valley Home Sales by Month since 2003 for single family detached homes. If you follow the chart you can see that the May, June and July figures all stay pretty close over the last couple years beginning after 2007. The news such as papers and TV reports on a much larger regional scale which lump the sales data for very large areas into one report. If you’re planning to buy or sell a home in Simi Valley, you need to know what’s going on in Simi Valley in order to come up with a strong strategy. Please bookmark or subscribe to this blog so you can see what is going on locally in Simi Valley.

 Simi Valley homes for sale year-to-date 2003 through 2010

Search for Homes in Simi Valley California Simi Valley Property Values

 

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!
Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty
Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,
specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate
(805) 432-7705

The Lunatics Have Taken Over The Asylum

The lunatics have taken over the asylum. (CNBC video interview at end of this post)

LunaticBeside being the song title of a 1980s new wave band (Fun Boy Three), the title of this post may be more accurate than even I realize.

I follow the papers, several blogs including Calculated Risk, Square Feet Blog, industry blogs such as Inman and it is clear to me that the newspapers blow with the wind.  One day everything is great and the next day everything is terrible.  My industry sources, such as trade associations and even companies like Dataquick are too quick to create sensational headlines that are almost as obnoxious as the newspapers.  I have been telling my clients for long time now that this is going to be a long recovery and bumpy along the way.  There is opportunity in every market – even this market; it just takes determination and persistence.

For example, just two days ago, Dataquick’s headline from their own website is “Southern California Home Sales Increase“. While the over all article does a pretty good job explaining what’s been happening, I think it’s still tries to paint a rosy picture prematurely. While certain sections of Southern California are reacting better than others, the Simi Valley housing market is still below pace for any type of stable or normal market.

Looking at some of today’s headlines we see “Seriously Delinquent Mortgages Versus Unemployment Rate” and “Strong Dollar, Weak Data Pummels Stocks” and “Three-Month Treasury Bill Yields Turned Negative“. Yet the desire to cheer-lead back or will back the real estate market will appear in a conflicting article in the next few days.

What is extremely important for Simi Valley home buyers and home sellers is to understand at this time is,  any claim of a recovery or stabilization, is just more premature thought or whistling in the dark. There’s still plenty of bad venom in the mortgage markets and housing markets that need to work through the system before we can see substantial relief.

Low inventories have favored sellers and low interest rates have enticed buyers, a long-term strategy in residential real estate is probably a safer play.  The entry-level housing combined with the historically low interest rates has created affordability for a large segment of the market. The upper level housing has not mirrored the entry level housing.

We know there are still record numbers of bad loans, mortgages not being paid on time, adjustable mortgages getting ready to reset, modification programs, short sales, and foreclosures being held off the market; that the fragile environment created by government intervention ,the banking industry’s manipulation of inventories and interest rates can only be sustained for a limited amount of time.

The economy grew for a long time based on unsustainable consumer spending tied not to discretionary income, but rather to home-equity spending. Now that home equity spending has been cut off and credit lines are being closed and reduced, the consumer spending Wall Street is waiting for will not return. This all trickles down through the economy affecting jobs and housing.

While the headlines will continue to seesaw consider the information in this interview on CNBC with Meredith Whitney.

CAUTION, CAUTION, CAUTION is all I have to say.  Do your research,  a smart buy or move up purchase can be found in this market as long as you keep your ear to the ground.

Search for Homes in Simi Valley California Simi Valley Property Values

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

Simi Valley Housing Market Update YTD July 31, 2009

Big Sky Simi Valley CaliforniaSimi Valley Housing Market Update YTD July 31, 2009

The Simi Valley housing market has not been boring lately.  Extremely low inventories, Super Low interest rates and the $8,000.00 Federal Tax Credit which expires December 1st have buyers whipped up into a frenzy competing for very few homes for sale.  This situation has stabilized the lower end of the market.  The middle section of the market has seen some side affects as listings in the middle price range, that are well maintained and in good locations, are snapped up fast.  however the middle and upper sections of Simi Valley home pricing still has a fair amount of negotiations going on, where the lower end of the market is in the middle of a bidding war.

We seen this all before in 2004-2005 and those buyers loosing their heads just for a chance at a $8,000.00 tax credit are going to wake up with a similar hang over as the home buyers did from the 2004-2005 market.  When the dust settles and inventory is more balanced,  there will be many buyers of this tight market that are going to realize they bought homes with serious deferred maintenance. This oversight is probably going to be a larger cost and job to tackle than they first realized erasing the benefit of the tax credit.

The fact is that as prices move up and buyers get squeezed out again, the next group of buyers will revolt.  We should see a pretty volatile up and down market for the next few years out, as the banks continue to sell off their bad assets and under performing loans.
Below is the activity for July. We can see a similar trend in that fewer homes sold in July than June and fewer homes sold in June than in May.    We have a tremendous amount of homes in escrow, but more than two thirds are  Short Sales and while more short sales are starting to close escrow there is still a very large balance that never close.

Currently there are 256 single family detached homes in Simi Valley that are in escrow.  165 of those homes are Short Sales, only 32 are foreclosures.  With a constant closing rate under 100 detached Simi Valley homes each month and similar escrow counts over the last few months, the fragility of the market is oh so obvious.  We have another wave of Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans coming due in 2010 and 2011 that I discussed last fall in this post  Adjustable Mortgage Reset Schedule

If you are a buyer and are worried you are going to miss the $8,000 tax credit, all I can say is don’t make an impulse buy now because the $8,000 you get as a tax credit may be far out weighed by a house that needs a ton of work.  Knowing that with 256 homes in escrow and only approximately 80 will close in August,  that means that 176 will not close and those 176 buyers will be pressed another month closer to the December 1st Tax credit deadline. I can see bad buying decisions multiply as we near the deadline.

How does this affect Sellers? Less competition means that you can sell your home quicker and negotiate less if you are below the $500,000 price range.  If your home is not a creme puff; then now is the time to consider selling your home as the lack of competing listings will take some pressure off your home being in showcase condition.  I need to emphasize “some” pressure.  If your your home is a kin to one of Cinderella’s step sisters that needs to be dressed up for the ball then consider consulting with a Home Stager; the cost is far lower than remodeling and can really make the difference on that first impression.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 337 121
Average List Price 577,637 1,041,213
Average Days Listed 113 117
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 115 21
Average List Price 436,222 616005
Average Days on Market 59 62
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 545 149
Average List Price 461,053 565,860
Average Sold Price 451,093 547,921
Average Days Listed 86 87
Average Closed Sales per month 77.86 21.29
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 6.99 6.99
Activity – Single Family Attached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 138 24
Average List Price 306,554 285,842
Average Days Listed 171 134
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 39 16
Average List Price 270,575 269,757
Average Days on Market 81 69
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 102 52
Average List Price 278,409 267,382
Average Sold Price 270,733 260,616
Average Days Listed 94 93
Average Closed Sales per month 14.57 7.43
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 9.35 3.23

Simi Valley Housing Market and Economy is in for long recovery

Simi Valley Housing Market and Economy is in for long recovery

If you want hype, then my Blog is not the place to hangout.  If you want doom and gloom then think twice before you read this post.  The future of Simi Valley’s housing market is no where near as rosy as many of my colleagues would what you to believe, but with careful planing and patients many people will buy and sell homes successfully in the difficult Simi Valley housing market that lies ahead.  The fact is that Eight times more millionares are made in recessions than in good economic times.

The loan programs that created the unprecedented run up of Simi Valley housing prices will not return.  Those programs accounted for almost 30% of the home buyers during run up.  Take 30% of the buyers out of any business model and it is easy to see why we are in the mess we are in.  Now consider that those buyers will never return to the market and it is very easy to understand that when the bottom hits, it will be a slow climb out.  The one bright spot in our future is that the population is grown and California attacks more people than those that move out of the area, so demand will always be a positive factor in Simi Valley’s housing market.  

Ventura County has a slow controlled growth attitude both on the city and county levels which will keep inventories low.

Below is an interview with Robert Schiller on the future of the economy.

Simi Valley Real Estate Market Report from Zillow up through June 30, 2008

Simi Valley Real Estate Market Report from Zillow up through June 30, 2008 

Zillow is reporting a year over year -23.1% change in home values, with a Zillow Home Value index at $429,000.  While Zillow data for individual Zesimates have some challenges, this report is very close to other numbers being reported for Simi Valley Real Estate Homes.