recovery

Simi Valley May 2011 Real Estate Market Report

The Simi Valley May 2011 real estate market report for home sales is continuing on some similar trends. Total single-family detached homes sold in the month of May were slightly lower than the previous year with a 6 1/2% decrease, but higher than in April 2011. The average sales price for Simi Valley single-family detached homes declined for a second month in row from $443,038 to 433,502. The decline is influenced by the higher number of homes that close in the under $400,000 price range. If you look at each chart from the monthly reports posted in the Market Updates section of this blog; it is clear the highest buyer activity is in the below $400,000 price range. Continuing from earlier this year we have seen more homes selling below $300,000 and in May there were 16 single-family detached homes closing below this level which is the highest number since the height of the real estate market back in 2006-2007.

In recent reports Robert Shiller, one of the economists behind the S&P Case/Shiller index of home prices, has stated he would not be surprised if home values decline another 10% to 25%. While this seems alarming, Mr. Schiller is clear that some of this decline will not be seen in actual prices but rather masked by inflation.

May of 2009 saw homes close at lower pricing than today and each time the Simi Valley real estate market approaches price points similar to 2009, buyers and investors purchase activities pick up and appear to help support a flatter market condition.

With home sales under 300,000 increasing, first-time home buyer’s affordability increases as well. Some housing tracts in Simi Valley stabilized and some pulled back a little. Overall, the three-year trend of approximately 80 single-family detached homes selling each month continues and signals for gains and recovery in home pricing is still on hold. The chart below is broken into pricing categories, if you look at the price range your home falls into, you can see what the average market timing is, what the average sales price is compared to the original list price and how many homes in your range or closing each month.

Simi Valley Housing Market and Economy is in for long recovery

If you want hype, then my Blog is not the place to hangout. If you want doom and gloom then think twice before you read this post. The future of Simi Valley’s housing market is no where near as rosy as many of my colleagues would what you to believe, but with careful planing and patients many people will buy and sell homes successfully in the difficult Simi Valley housing market that lies ahead. The fact is that Eight times more millionares are made in recessions than in good economic times.

The loan programs that created the unprecedented run up of Simi Valley housing prices will not return. Those programs accounted for almost 30% of the home buyers during run up. Take 30% of the buyers out of any business model and it is easy to see why we are in the mess we are in. Now consider that those buyers will never return to the market and it is very easy to understand that when the bottom hits, it will be a slow climb out. The one bright spot in our future is that the population is grown and California attacks more people than those that move out of the area, so demand will always be a positive factor in Simi Valley’s housing market.

Ventura County has a slow controlled growth attitude both on the city and county levels which will keep inventories low.

Below is an interview with Robert Schiller on the future of the economy.