Twitter

False Recovery? How Fragile is the Simi Valley Real Estate Market

This is a chart I whipped up last year trying to illustrate what a mortgage interest rate does to the real estate market when it goes over 6%. I might have posted it before, but it really needs another look at with our current market conditions. Why this chart becomes even more important now is that the current market conditions are a false positive on recovery for the following unsustainable reasons:

Low interest rates (under 6%). Rates can’t stay here below 6% forever
Historically Low Inventory. Not enought supply to meet demand. As inventory levels increase buyers have more choices.
Federal Tax Credits. $8,000 tax credt for 1st time buyers expires December 1st
Unemployment. Double didgit unemployement still has a long way to go before recovering
Average monthly payments can no longer be disguised lower with exotic financing to help drive up sales prices
Renter Revolt – As soon as the prices move up enough to price renters out of the entry level markets sales will slow again.

If you are in the market to buy a home in Simi Valley, the frustration factor is getting to everyone, you are not alone. Only a good increase in inventory can help cool this market down. I pray for inventory for my buyers.

If you are a seller and cannot wait a few years before selling, this is the time to make a move as the low inventory creates less competition and the likelihood that you can move you home quickly if priced aggressively and made ready to show with a home stager or staged yourself.

If you would like to talk real estate in an open relaxed environment; follow me on Twitter @RealtorTed and watch for my updates as I usually go to Panera Bakery in Simi Valley one night a week and hang out for a few hours having coffee with local people talking about Real Estate, things around the community, computers etc. I hope to see you there!

Plane Crash – Twitter & the iPhone make for another interesting day

Who is @RealtorTed? Who is @jkrums. Well if you have heard of twitter or have never heard of twitter, it is a way that is rapidly changing communication and the spread of news.

Not everything posted on twitter can be taken as fact but coupled with pictures, the news of the day is reaching the Twittersphere long before traditional media can get the story out.

Last year a UC Berkeley student was in Egypt, who was caught up in a demonstration and taken to jail. His tweets through twitter transmitted from his cell phone were picked up by other twitter followers and help was orchestrated from California immediately.

Today’s plane crash in the Hudson river was no exception. A Ferry in the river was en-route to the site and the picture below was taken by twitter user @jkrums in real time. @jkrums using his iPhone camera and text messaging, uploaded the dramatic picture and a message via twitter immediately.

I have been using the service for almost a year now and predominantly use the service to track national discussion about the Real Estate Industry. This service has tremendously helped expand my marketing ideas and other ways to better serve my clients. The other ways I have used twitter is to follow college football games and the elections on election night, at election.twitter.com. Tracking these events is easy at search.twitter.com. These searches can be even more powerful though the use of hashtags . I can watch those programs on TV and armed with my laptop I can follow the national discussion taking place on these hot topics.

One last use that has been an interesting development is, many of the conferences I attend are finding twitter users commentating on panel discussions and keynote speeches as they happen. Other attendees engage in the discussion and comments and those that were unable to attend can follow the action live. This creates a new style of synergy between conference attendees and many introductions to new contacts.

These new high tech services are not only popular and really catching on, but they are providing information at break-neck speed. Traditional media is trying to adapt and incorporate these tools, but it looks like citizen journalism is going to be a big influence on the news we receive.

One last example. When the metrolink train crashed in Chatsworth tragically last year I was in my car on the way back to Simi Valley from Woodland Hills. I was at a stop light updating twitter users over what I had heard about the crash. My typing skills on the phone that day were very poor and the garbled message was picked up KCAL 9 TV news. I was phoned by @richdemuro at KCAL directly within minutes of my message and was asked what I knew about the crash and of I was anywhere near the scene.

News and information is changing rapidly and twitter is a big part of that change.