May 21, 2012

Increasing Home Values According to Survey of Home Owners

Increasing Home Values According to Survey of Home Owners

Whenever I get into this discussion on how Home Seller perceptions of home values are still out of touch with the market, the first comment I hear is, “are they (home sellers) watching and reading the same news the rest of are?”

So what is the reality? Every month I post the YTD sales for Simi Valley and Moorpark Real Estate.

The declining trends are very clear and the segment of the market with the most activity is very clear from these reports as well.  What is even more interesting is that the inventory has been shrinking and prices have continued to decline.  Generaly shrinking inventories slow or stop declines and even can start a rebound, but in this market; confidence, incomes, inflation and lending are a major part of what is keeping this market from recovery.

IF you are a home owner thinking about selling your home, this is the time to prepare and be realistic about what you can sell your home for.  Zillow’s full text can been found here: 

Strangely, “Not My House” Sentiment Continues, Albeit a Smaller Group

Simi Valley Town Center Lights the Christmas Tree

Simi Valley Town Center Lighting of the Christmas Tree 2008Simi Valley Town Center Lights the Christmas Tree

Last night the residents of Simi Valley flooded the Simi Valley Town Center to celebrate the lighting of the Christmas Tree and kick off the 2008 Holiday Season. Thanksgiving is still a couple a weeks away, but the mall retailers will need all the help they can get this holday season. Families gathered for an unusually warm fall evening for the light show and entertainment.

Simi Valley Housing Market and Economy is in for long recovery

Simi Valley Housing Market and Economy is in for long recovery

If you want hype, then my Blog is not the place to hangout.  If you want doom and gloom then think twice before you read this post.  The future of Simi Valley’s housing market is no where near as rosy as many of my colleagues would what you to believe, but with careful planing and patients many people will buy and sell homes successfully in the difficult Simi Valley housing market that lies ahead.  The fact is that Eight times more millionares are made in recessions than in good economic times.

The loan programs that created the unprecedented run up of Simi Valley housing prices will not return.  Those programs accounted for almost 30% of the home buyers during run up.  Take 30% of the buyers out of any business model and it is easy to see why we are in the mess we are in.  Now consider that those buyers will never return to the market and it is very easy to understand that when the bottom hits, it will be a slow climb out.  The one bright spot in our future is that the population is grown and California attacks more people than those that move out of the area, so demand will always be a positive factor in Simi Valley’s housing market.  

Ventura County has a slow controlled growth attitude both on the city and county levels which will keep inventories low.

Below is an interview with Robert Schiller on the future of the economy.

Simi Valley at Dusk

Simi Valley at Dusk

Simi Valley Sign at Dusk

Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate Market October 2008 Report – YTD Home Sales

Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate Market October 2008 Report – YTD Home Sales

The following table contains the numbers for the Simi Valley Moorpark Real Estate housing market from January 1, 2008 through October 31, 2008.  Trending shows that the total number of homes for sale has decreased significantly since the beginning of the year.  Typically a tightening inventory creates advantages to the seller rather than the buyer and this has not been the case.  Tightened credit markets and trouble in the banking industry has made financing tougher.  While the number of homes sold on a monthly basis has been steady now since May, the bulk of that inventory has been in the lower end of pricing.

Activity – Single Family Detached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 447 138
Average List Price 577,632 886,337
Average Days Listed 93 91
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 93 17
Average List Price 447,376 549,883
Average Days on Market 70 57
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 820 193
Average List Price 532,683 603,738
Average Sold Price 513,927 583,175
Average Days Listed 84 99
Average Closed Sales per month 82.0 19.3
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 5.45 7.15
Activity – Single Family Attached Homes
Active Listings Simi Valley Moorpark
Active
# Units 115 44
Average List Price 338,400 367,164
Average Days Listed 118 74
Pending Sales in Escrow
# Units 33 67
Average List Price 286,816 303,114
Average Days on Market 69 55
Total Closed Sales for 2008
# Units 153 48
Average List Price 319,898 311,969
Average Sold Price 308,732 301,525
Average Days Listed 80 94
Average Closed Sales per month 15.3 4.8
Unsold Inventory Index (in months) 7.52 9.17

District Attorney Greg Totten’s visit to Simi Valley Sunrise Rotary Club

Ventrua County District Attorney Greg TottenDistrict Attorney Greg Totten’s visit to Simi Valley Sunrise Rotary Club

Thursday October 30th. District Attorney Greg Totten spoke at the Simi Valley Sunrise Rotary Club meeting.  DA Greg Totten had several important topics to share with the group.  This first was that the District Attorney was opening an office in the East County court house located in Simi Valley.  Noting the geography of Ventura County created a natural east-west split, the DA’ office hoped to bring services close to the residents in the Conejo Valley, Moorpark and Simi Valley areas.

This office was the former office for Ventura County Supervisor Peter Foy who relocated to a building outside the east county complex.  Foy’s move was a great idea in that you had to go through all the court’s search screening of the metal detectors and xray machines just to visit the supervisor’s office.  Distric Attorney Greg Totten’s new east county office will serve the public and the DA explained that the following four areas will be the top activities for the Simi Valley office.

  • Victim services – Domestic Violence creates the need for restraining orders and restitution.
  • NSF check enforcement - Persons that receive bad checks can use the DA services to collect on those checks.  There are fees built into the collection and this service pays for itself.
  • Consumer services – the DAs office actually has mediation services to mediate between Business and Consumer disputes.
  • Government Fraud – Goes after welfare cheaters, mis-use of food stamps.  Checks on residence and income and also goes after section 8 housing cheaters.

District Attorney Greg Totten went on to explain that the only additional cost to the county budget in running this office was the addition of a community prosecutor.  The community prosecutor is here to work with Simi Valley and Moorpark police and learn about the issues relative to the Simi Valley and Moorpark areas.  Part of the funding ($52,000)  for the community prosecutor was obtained through the Department of Justice with the help from congressman Elton Gallegly.

District Attorney Greg Totten’s main topic for Rotary was the important issue of a prison hospital to be located in Camarillo.   Federal lawsuits brought by inmates regarding overcrowding claim that inmates are given inadequate health care and that inmates as a result are dying form inadequate care.  Currently California houses 170,000 inmates in 33 prisons.  Each inmate is budgeted approximately $14,000 per year in medical benefits. This lawsuit plans to force California to spend $8,000,000,000 (billion) of California state taxpayer money  to build 10 new prison hospitals for 10,000 inmate patients.  

The DA was quick to point several myths surrounding  this issue.

  • Myth #1 California has the fastest growing inmate population
  • Myth #2 Most inmates are in for petty crimes
  • Myth #3 Three Strikes is increasing the population
  • Myth #4 The prison system is a care systemfor the aging.

The fact is that the California Prison system has experienced a 1% per year growth rate over the last 10 years and there are 20 other states ahead of California in this growth rate.  This growth rate as a per capita comprison is decreasing.  140,000 of the 170,000 inmates are incarcerated for serious criminal convictions.  Before the three stikes law, Califonia had the 4th highest crime rate. California now is 29th.

District Attorney Greg Totten left us with a quick message to Vote No on Proposition 5.  This proposition is often referred to the Drug Dealer’s Bill of Rights.  There is sentiment that drug users are thrown in jail and they really only need rehabilitation in a drug treatment program.  The proprosition as it stands sounds good on the surface but  it creates and added expense in the budget with more bueracracy, shortens sentences and will release many form prison terms early.  The term non violent drug dealers seems to be an oxymoron as drug dealers will be some of the first to benefit from this proposition.    Even the very skewed Los Angeles Times is against this proposition along with our last 5 govenors, MADD and many others.

Overall, District Attorney Greg Totten was able to give the Simi Valley Sunrise Rotary Club great information on issues important to our county and state and his talk was warmly received.