Home Sales

Simi Valley October 2011 Home Sales

November 14, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

October Single Family Detached Home Sales for Simi Valley did not react much different that September. Volume is up over 2010 and 2009. Homes under $400k are pulling the lion’s share of the activity and as interest rates drop into low 4′s and high 3′s buyers still remain cautious.

I mentioned last month the sluggish upper end of the market. If you have a home in the $900k to $999,999 price range, did you know that only 4, yes that is right FOUR homes have sold since January 1, 2011 in this price range for Simi Valley real estate? Currently there are 6 homes on the market in this price range and the last sale for the price range was in May. So, if you are listed in this range and wonder what is happening, wonder no more, even with attractive interest rates buyers for this range are not abundant at this time. At the same time, 10 Simi Valley homes have sold over 1 million with one of those being a custom spec house.

The ditressed market still is a major influencer on the overall market. RealtyTrac recently reported:

California default notices increased 17 percent from the previous month to a 13-month high, helping the state post the nation’s second highest foreclosure rate: one in every 243 housing units with a foreclosure filing in October. A total of 29,240 default notices were reported in California in October, a 1 percent increase from October 2010 — the first year-over-year increase in defaults in California since November 2009.

Even though other parts of the country are seeing some relief. However; Nevada, California, Florida and Arizona continue to battle through many struggling home owner’s loans with modification attempts, short sales and foreclosure.

Below is the 30 year interest rate chart for 30 year conforming loans. 2011 has continues to average with the lowest rates. It is no wonder that investors are out snapping up deals with money this cheap. The Blue line below should be a wake up call to those sitting on the sidelines. The distressed market is continuing to to keep prices in check.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Foreclosures, Home Sales, interest rates, Loan modification, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley August 2011 Home Sales Volume Slows Average Sales Price Rebounds

September 5, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley Homes Sales in August 2011 for single family detached units slowed. The pullback is not alarming and was something I anticipated after such a strong showing in July for the following reasons:

People like to move before school starts (contributing to July increased sales).
Prices have continued to decline making many Simi Valley homes for sale attractive-good-buys.
Interest Rates continue at historic low rates. (Money is cheap)
National Economic News in August and big drops in the Stock Market rocked consumer confidence.
The Political Atmosphere in Washington DC (created by all parties) is killing consumer confidence.

The average sales price showed some rebound, but I want to recap what the average sales price and the median sales price really tells us.

If you look at the charts I post each month, I break down the sales in price brackets by $100,000 ranges. You can see each month that the bulk of all Simi Valley single family detached homes are selling under $500,000. Some months no houses sell in the upper end of the market and when this happens the average sales price can swing pretty dramatically. In the recent months that swing was influenced by a larger number of homes selling under $300,000. This trend started in January 2011 and continued on through August.

The Average Price method of looking at the market can give a good idea of how the upper end of the housing market is moving. dramatic decreases in average sales price indicates the upper end units are not selling. While the the Median price reveals more of how the average all market is reacting in general.

The last three years has revealed that the low end is selling, what is interesting to watch is how the upper end of the Market (above $500,000) is selling. When Prices are aggressive and interest rates are low investors and landlords come in on the lower end properties as we have been seeing this year in Simi Valley. The general public typically lags behind the investor activity. A healthy market in the upper price ranges can indicate better employment opportunities (an improving economy). It can signal that employers may look to Simi Valley as a place to locate and it can bolster the local economy with a higher demographic of shoppers, all of which can influence property prices upward.

The summary is that the upper markets are still struggling, and the over all perception of good buys is fully being realized by investors and those with conventional financing looking to lock in low interest rate for the long haul.

Past Market Reports:

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Home Sales, market update, Simi Valley

Simi Valley May 2011 Real Estate Market Report

June 9, 2011 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

The Simi Valley May 2011 real estate market report for home sales is continuing on some similar trends. Total single-family detached homes sold in the month of May were slightly lower than the previous year with a 6 1/2% decrease, but higher than in April 2011. The average sales price for Simi Valley single-family detached homes declined for a second month in row from $443,038 to 433,502. The decline is influenced by the higher number of homes that close in the under $400,000 price range. If you look at each chart from the monthly reports posted in the Market Updates section of this blog; it is clear the highest buyer activity is in the below $400,000 price range. Continuing from earlier this year we have seen more homes selling below $300,000 and in May there were 16 single-family detached homes closing below this level which is the highest number since the height of the real estate market back in 2006-2007.

In recent reports Robert Shiller, one of the economists behind the S&P Case/Shiller index of home prices, has stated he would not be surprised if home values decline another 10% to 25%. While this seems alarming, Mr. Schiller is clear that some of this decline will not be seen in actual prices but rather masked by inflation.

May of 2009 saw homes close at lower pricing than today and each time the Simi Valley real estate market approaches price points similar to 2009, buyers and investors purchase activities pick up and appear to help support a flatter market condition.

With home sales under 300,000 increasing, first-time home buyer’s affordability increases as well. Some housing tracts in Simi Valley stabilized and some pulled back a little. Overall, the three-year trend of approximately 80 single-family detached homes selling each month continues and signals for gains and recovery in home pricing is still on hold. The chart below is broken into pricing categories, if you look at the price range your home falls into, you can see what the average market timing is, what the average sales price is compared to the original list price and how many homes in your range or closing each month.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: declines, Home Sales, real estate, recovery, Robert Shiller, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report April 2011

May 9, 2011 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

Simi Valley Single-family detached home sales for the month of April 2011 did not continue to increase in the number of properties sold as we saw in February and March. What was more interesting, was that the volume dropped a little over 10% from 2010. The month-to-month uncertainty that still clouds the market, is a big reason why I do not make claims recovery. Simi Valley is still experiencing single-family detached homes selling under $300,000, the bulk of sales activity continues to be under $500,000 and distressed properties will continue to be a big part of the Simi Valley real estate market for some time to come. Gasoline prices in April near $4.50 a gallon and general economic concerns, locally, statewide and nationally are not improving.

The importance to homeowners at this time is understanding that any market recovery is going to be slow, plans to sell property in the future should consider how the market is reacting in these difficult economic times. The winners in the current marketplace are the buyers with historically low interest rates and pricing hitting pre-bubble levels as reported in the Wall Street Journal in February.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: April, Foreclosures, Home Sales, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Homes Sales Report for March 2011

April 10, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley home sales saw the second straight month with the highest volumes since 2006. However, mimicking February, we are still seeing more listings and more sales below $300,000 and the final sales ratios averaging more than 5% below the original list price. Good thing, but home sellers and homeowners I speak with are more interested as to when it will see a recovery in pricing.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Foreclosures, Home Sales, March, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Homes Sales Report for February 2011

March 9, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley single-family detached home sales for February 2011 saw the highest volumes since 2006. While the typical response to a record month of sales was jubilation and claims of market recovery, looking closer at the numbers shows that while there was an uptick in the number of homes sold the market still has a ways to go before we can declare recovery. The continuing trend to watch is the increase of homes sold under $300,000. Most of 2010 saw a few sales under $300,000 per month, but as of December 2000 and the number is picked up. Even with record low interest rates last fall, buyers may have come out to purchase more homes, but higher volumes is not equating into higher prices.

Inflation impacting goods and services especially items like gasoline goes is taking money way that might be attributed to a buyer’s mortgage payment. Overall economic concerns of inflation and employment along with the continued impact of the short sale and bank owned property market are keeping housing prices down. Another factor to watch as the list to sell ratio. This is the difference between what a home was originally listed for and what the seller eventually accepted as an offer. The number typically is in the 3% area, however looking below the number has grown to 5% and higher on average.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: February, Foreclosures, Home Sales, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report for January 2011

February 8, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley family detached home sales report for January 2011 really doesn’t jump out compared to last couple of years; pretty much the same activity. Sales under $500,000 continue to dominate the market, with sales under $300,000 continuing to show the market moving along a base price point. The year-over-year average sales price remains in the $460,000 range and the year over year monthly average sales volume has average approximately 80 homes per month for single-family detached units.

The number to watch on the chart for this year will be the “List to Sell Ratio”. This is the price of the house ends up selling at compared to what the property was listed for. If you are a home seller in any one of these ranges you can get a good idea what you expect as a final sales price based on the current activity. The condition and upgrade of any property can negate lower list to sell ratios, but it is important to see how buyers are reacting and prepare your property accordingly prior to selling.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Foreclosures, Home Sales, January, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report for December 2010

January 6, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley home sales for the month of December 2000 and finished off strong and in similar fashion as we saw in December of 2009. The higher volume and sales is not an indicator of market recovery for the following reasons. We’ve seen an increase of homes for sale under $300,000. The distressed market consisting of short sales and foreclosures pushes sales volumes up at year-end as banks try to clear their books.

With record low interest rates continuing many have hoped for turnaround in the market however pressures from inflation on goods and services are still influencing home purchasers decisions. Looking at the tables below, the same trends have continued has over the last 18 months. Homes under 500,000 continued to dominate the market well homes over $900,000 in Simi Valley still show sluggish sales.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: December, Foreclosures, Home Sales, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report for September 2010

October 3, 2010 By Ted Mackel 3 Comments

Simi Valley home sales for September 2010 held their ground and blended in with the running averages. Interest rates remained below 5% in September and some buyers were able to lock rates below 4 1/2%. Even with historically low interest rates Simi Valley Home buyers remain cautious. While the number of distressed properties listed for sale does not dominate the inventory, there is still a significant number of homeowners in trouble which adds negative pressure to the market.

Homeowners trying to modify and keep their homes, sometimes end up more than half a year behind on payments only to find out that they do not qualify for modification. This backlog of distressed inventory is part of what’s driving lack of confidence in the market.

Simi Valley saw a low in May of 2009 and so far, the market has not retreated back to those numbers. The Simi Valley Housing Market looks to have stabilized and is holding ground for the time being. Only has the tax incentives added any excitement to the market.

Buyers tend to have a slight advantage in purchases now as inventories are more balanced, Interest Rates are incredibly low and the distressed market created some influence in favor of Simi Valley Home Buyers.

This first chart has the Simi Valley detached home sales broken down by price range for the month of September 2010.

This next chart represents the number of single family detached Simi Valley homes sold by month.

This chart show the average sales price of single family detached homes ove the last 3 years

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Buyers, home, Home Sales, report, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report For July 2010

August 10, 2010 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

The number of single-family detached homes sold in Simi Valley for the month of July 2010 pulled back from a robust June market. There really is no significance in the decline for the following reasons.

The federal tax credits expired June 30, there was a rush to close escrow’s to qualify for the tax credit. If you look closely at the chart below, June 2010 pretty much didn’t do any better than June 2009. So with this huge tax incentive for home buyers, bit State and Federally, all that really happened is we held our ground in June.
Those that participated in Simi Valley home purchases to gain the tax credit, did not stimulate the market at the levels the government hoped for.

Essentially, if you look at the charts below you can see the average Simi Valley sales year-over-year and while 2009 and 2010 look better, this is more stabilization than any type of recovery.

There are still significant numbers of homeowners struggling to modify their loans or participate in a short sale to get out from under their loan. This number is large and will take several years to deplete out of our inventories before we can look forward to any type recovery.

This first Chart is useful to see how many single family detached homes sell each month in Simi Valley. There really has been no significant change from 2008 and this includes the tax credits.

Th following Chart breaks out the Simi Valley home Sales that occurred in July 2010 by price range. The trend continues with the most activity in the $300k to $400k range.