Home Sales

Simi Valley February 2012 Home Sales Report

March 9, 2012 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Sales of single-family detached homes in Simi Valley are getting interesting. February’s numbers are showing support of my discussion that we are near or at a market bottom. Now those that live in hype, the carnival barker types, are probably out on every street corner prematurely celebrating recovery.

Taking time and looking at what has happened over the last couple years and more specifically the last 12 months, what has become very clear and very simple as that this is a very good real estate market. However, it is only good for those who are educated on the main points that are driving this market.

If you look at the chart (at the bottom of this post), the one thing that jumps out on the page is that all the list to sale ratios significantly improved. We need to understand why this is happening or we might as well join the premature celebration. As I have stated in prior reports, investor buyers and landlords have been out purchasing property at an increased rate for several months. Investors always lead the market while regular buyers stand back trying to find the exact timing for the bottom of the market.

So why are more homes going out close to full asking price?

Here the following factors:

Pricing across most Simi Valley neighborhoods dropped as much as 10% in 2011
Short sales comprise a significant portion of these sales. They are typically already priced below market and many times approvals are at list price or above. In surveying the short sales that closed escrow in February, more than 80% closed at the asking price or higher. This in no way can be considered as buyers rushing in to bid up pricing.
Bank owned homes or foreclosed homes are being priced aggressively by their corporate owners to shorten market time.
Many of the properties at their current pricing will generate decent cash flow if purchased for a rental.

Again, looking at the chart and comparing to the prior months, volume has not increased. Median Price has been dropping each month with a brief bump up in December. February 2012 had the lowest Median Home Price for single-family detached homes sold in Simi Valley since I started tracking this metric back in January 2008. Average sales price of Simi Valley single-family detached homes has dipped below $400,000 for the very first time.

This is why it is extremely important to look at the overall picture. While pricing is probably at one of the most attractive affordability rates in a long long time, buyers are cautious and deliberate when it comes time to writing their offers. The one clear signal to continue to watch is the activity of the investors and landlords as they continue to snap up properties for their portfolios; buyers ready to buy a home today should not sit and try to time the market for an absolute bottom.

Inventory is extremely tight, prices as low as 2002 levels and with interest rates for conforming loans under 4%, we will see months like February and properties will begin to sell closer to asking price. Any upward move in pricing will be temporary as buyers will back off before participating in a run up.

Unless inventory increases we should expect to see some more of the same numbers for March Simi Valley home sales.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Home Sales, Market Report, real estate, Simi Valley

Simi Valley January 2012 Home Sales Report

February 11, 2012 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

After increased sales in December should we expect a carry over into the new year? Probably not. January closings for Simi Valley Single Family Detached (SFD) homes back off as I suspected. This retraction does not indicate another drop in prices, but is more of the same of what we have seen over the last 6-8 months.

Not to sound like a broken record, but here is how January ended up:

The number of SFD Simi Valley homes under $300k remain elevated
Less than half of the SFD homes under $300k are purchased using low down payment financing
Investors/Landlords are still accumulating and looking for additional rental properties
Sales of Simi Valley Homes above $800k are still sluggish
Buyers continue to try and time the market while the investors are out tying up properties with low interest financing and attractive selling prices.

The list to sell ratio has moved from a 3% average to almost 7% average over course of the last couple years. This gap is wide enough to show that buyers are not bidding home prices up. That any property listed for sale that is not competitive with the surrounding homes go through a course of price reductions till it meets buyer expectations.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Home Sales, Market Report, Market Updates, real estate, Simi Valley

Simi Valley October 2011 Home Sales

November 14, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

October Single Family Detached Home Sales for Simi Valley did not react much different that September. Volume is up over 2010 and 2009. Homes under $400k are pulling the lion’s share of the activity and as interest rates drop into low 4′s and high 3′s buyers still remain cautious.

I mentioned last month the sluggish upper end of the market. If you have a home in the $900k to $999,999 price range, did you know that only 4, yes that is right FOUR homes have sold since January 1, 2011 in this price range for Simi Valley real estate? Currently there are 6 homes on the market in this price range and the last sale for the price range was in May. So, if you are listed in this range and wonder what is happening, wonder no more, even with attractive interest rates buyers for this range are not abundant at this time. At the same time, 10 Simi Valley homes have sold over 1 million with one of those being a custom spec house.

The ditressed market still is a major influencer on the overall market. RealtyTrac recently reported:

California default notices increased 17 percent from the previous month to a 13-month high, helping the state post the nation’s second highest foreclosure rate: one in every 243 housing units with a foreclosure filing in October. A total of 29,240 default notices were reported in California in October, a 1 percent increase from October 2010 — the first year-over-year increase in defaults in California since November 2009.

Even though other parts of the country are seeing some relief. However; Nevada, California, Florida and Arizona continue to battle through many struggling home owner’s loans with modification attempts, short sales and foreclosure.

Below is the 30 year interest rate chart for 30 year conforming loans. 2011 has continues to average with the lowest rates. It is no wonder that investors are out snapping up deals with money this cheap. The Blue line below should be a wake up call to those sitting on the sidelines. The distressed market is continuing to to keep prices in check.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Foreclosures, Home Sales, interest rates, Loan modification, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley August 2011 Home Sales Volume Slows Average Sales Price Rebounds

September 5, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley Homes Sales in August 2011 for single family detached units slowed. The pullback is not alarming and was something I anticipated after such a strong showing in July for the following reasons:

People like to move before school starts (contributing to July increased sales).
Prices have continued to decline making many Simi Valley homes for sale attractive-good-buys.
Interest Rates continue at historic low rates. (Money is cheap)
National Economic News in August and big drops in the Stock Market rocked consumer confidence.
The Political Atmosphere in Washington DC (created by all parties) is killing consumer confidence.

The average sales price showed some rebound, but I want to recap what the average sales price and the median sales price really tells us.

If you look at the charts I post each month, I break down the sales in price brackets by $100,000 ranges. You can see each month that the bulk of all Simi Valley single family detached homes are selling under $500,000. Some months no houses sell in the upper end of the market and when this happens the average sales price can swing pretty dramatically. In the recent months that swing was influenced by a larger number of homes selling under $300,000. This trend started in January 2011 and continued on through August.

The Average Price method of looking at the market can give a good idea of how the upper end of the housing market is moving. dramatic decreases in average sales price indicates the upper end units are not selling. While the the Median price reveals more of how the average all market is reacting in general.

The last three years has revealed that the low end is selling, what is interesting to watch is how the upper end of the Market (above $500,000) is selling. When Prices are aggressive and interest rates are low investors and landlords come in on the lower end properties as we have been seeing this year in Simi Valley. The general public typically lags behind the investor activity. A healthy market in the upper price ranges can indicate better employment opportunities (an improving economy). It can signal that employers may look to Simi Valley as a place to locate and it can bolster the local economy with a higher demographic of shoppers, all of which can influence property prices upward.

The summary is that the upper markets are still struggling, and the over all perception of good buys is fully being realized by investors and those with conventional financing looking to lock in low interest rate for the long haul.

Past Market Reports:

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Home Sales, market update, Simi Valley

Simi Valley May 2011 Real Estate Market Report

June 9, 2011 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

The Simi Valley May 2011 real estate market report for home sales is continuing on some similar trends. Total single-family detached homes sold in the month of May were slightly lower than the previous year with a 6 1/2% decrease, but higher than in April 2011. The average sales price for Simi Valley single-family detached homes declined for a second month in row from $443,038 to 433,502. The decline is influenced by the higher number of homes that close in the under $400,000 price range. If you look at each chart from the monthly reports posted in the Market Updates section of this blog; it is clear the highest buyer activity is in the below $400,000 price range. Continuing from earlier this year we have seen more homes selling below $300,000 and in May there were 16 single-family detached homes closing below this level which is the highest number since the height of the real estate market back in 2006-2007.

In recent reports Robert Shiller, one of the economists behind the S&P Case/Shiller index of home prices, has stated he would not be surprised if home values decline another 10% to 25%. While this seems alarming, Mr. Schiller is clear that some of this decline will not be seen in actual prices but rather masked by inflation.

May of 2009 saw homes close at lower pricing than today and each time the Simi Valley real estate market approaches price points similar to 2009, buyers and investors purchase activities pick up and appear to help support a flatter market condition.

With home sales under 300,000 increasing, first-time home buyer’s affordability increases as well. Some housing tracts in Simi Valley stabilized and some pulled back a little. Overall, the three-year trend of approximately 80 single-family detached homes selling each month continues and signals for gains and recovery in home pricing is still on hold. The chart below is broken into pricing categories, if you look at the price range your home falls into, you can see what the average market timing is, what the average sales price is compared to the original list price and how many homes in your range or closing each month.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: declines, Home Sales, real estate, recovery, Robert Shiller, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report April 2011

May 9, 2011 By Ted Mackel 1 Comment

Simi Valley Single-family detached home sales for the month of April 2011 did not continue to increase in the number of properties sold as we saw in February and March. What was more interesting, was that the volume dropped a little over 10% from 2010. The month-to-month uncertainty that still clouds the market, is a big reason why I do not make claims recovery. Simi Valley is still experiencing single-family detached homes selling under $300,000, the bulk of sales activity continues to be under $500,000 and distressed properties will continue to be a big part of the Simi Valley real estate market for some time to come. Gasoline prices in April near $4.50 a gallon and general economic concerns, locally, statewide and nationally are not improving.

The importance to homeowners at this time is understanding that any market recovery is going to be slow, plans to sell property in the future should consider how the market is reacting in these difficult economic times. The winners in the current marketplace are the buyers with historically low interest rates and pricing hitting pre-bubble levels as reported in the Wall Street Journal in February.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: April, Foreclosures, Home Sales, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Homes Sales Report for March 2011

April 10, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley home sales saw the second straight month with the highest volumes since 2006. However, mimicking February, we are still seeing more listings and more sales below $300,000 and the final sales ratios averaging more than 5% below the original list price. Good thing, but home sellers and homeowners I speak with are more interested as to when it will see a recovery in pricing.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Foreclosures, Home Sales, March, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Homes Sales Report for February 2011

March 9, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley single-family detached home sales for February 2011 saw the highest volumes since 2006. While the typical response to a record month of sales was jubilation and claims of market recovery, looking closer at the numbers shows that while there was an uptick in the number of homes sold the market still has a ways to go before we can declare recovery. The continuing trend to watch is the increase of homes sold under $300,000. Most of 2010 saw a few sales under $300,000 per month, but as of December 2000 and the number is picked up. Even with record low interest rates last fall, buyers may have come out to purchase more homes, but higher volumes is not equating into higher prices.

Inflation impacting goods and services especially items like gasoline goes is taking money way that might be attributed to a buyer’s mortgage payment. Overall economic concerns of inflation and employment along with the continued impact of the short sale and bank owned property market are keeping housing prices down. Another factor to watch as the list to sell ratio. This is the difference between what a home was originally listed for and what the seller eventually accepted as an offer. The number typically is in the 3% area, however looking below the number has grown to 5% and higher on average.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: February, Foreclosures, Home Sales, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report for January 2011

February 8, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley family detached home sales report for January 2011 really doesn’t jump out compared to last couple of years; pretty much the same activity. Sales under $500,000 continue to dominate the market, with sales under $300,000 continuing to show the market moving along a base price point. The year-over-year average sales price remains in the $460,000 range and the year over year monthly average sales volume has average approximately 80 homes per month for single-family detached units.

The number to watch on the chart for this year will be the “List to Sell Ratio”. This is the price of the house ends up selling at compared to what the property was listed for. If you are a home seller in any one of these ranges you can get a good idea what you expect as a final sales price based on the current activity. The condition and upgrade of any property can negate lower list to sell ratios, but it is important to see how buyers are reacting and prepare your property accordingly prior to selling.

Filed Under: Market Updates Tagged With: Foreclosures, Home Sales, January, short sales, Simi Valley

Simi Valley Home Sales Report for December 2010

January 6, 2011 By Ted Mackel Leave a Comment

Simi Valley home sales for the month of December 2000 and finished off strong and in similar fashion as we saw in December of 2009. The higher volume and sales is not an indicator of market recovery for the following reasons. We’ve seen an increase of homes for sale under $300,000. The distressed market consisting of short sales and foreclosures pushes sales volumes up at year-end as banks try to clear their books.

With record low interest rates continuing many have hoped for turnaround in the market however pressures from inflation on goods and services are still influencing home purchasers decisions. Looking at the tables below, the same trends have continued has over the last 18 months. Homes under 500,000 continued to dominate the market well homes over $900,000 in Simi Valley still show sluggish sales.